RADAR CHECK: Rain moved into West Alabama early this morning ahead of an upper trough approaching from the west. Rain will be fairly widespread across the state through tonight, although there will be some breaks. The good news is that there is no risk of severe weather, and I doubt if we hear much thunder. Temperatures will hold in the 60s all day with clouds and rain; amounts of one-half to 1 inch are likely over North/Central Alabama.
Clouds will most likely hang tough across Alabama tomorrow, and we will maintain the chance of a few lingering showers as moist air continues to wrap into the state on the top side of a surface low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The high tomorrow will be at or just over 70 degrees for most places.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Thursday will be warm and dry, with a high in the mid to upper 70s and a partly sunny sky; a few spots could actually touch 80 degrees. Pretty much the same story Friday — warm and dry during the day with a mix of sun and clouds.
To the north, a deep surface low will move across the Great Lakes Friday, setting up a risk of severe storms for Indiana and some of the adjacent states. The trailing cold front will move through Alabama Friday night with a chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, but for now we don’t expect any severe weather issues here with limited moisture, and the main dynamic support passing well to the north.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Noticeably cooler air drops into the state over the weekend. Saturday will be mostly sunny, but the high will be down in the 57- to 60-degree range, about 5 degrees below average for late February. Sunday morning will be cold; a freeze seems likely for colder pockets; the latest Global Forecast System is printing a low of 34 for Birmingham. Then, during the day Sunday, cool, dry weather continues with a sunny sky and a high close to 60 degrees.
NEXT WEEK: The week looks mild and rather unsettled, but there is very low confidence in specific details now with little model consistency or agreement. A few periods of showers and storms seem likely; rain is possible as early as Tuesday. It remains to be seen whether we will have severe weather issues, but remember the spring tornado season kicks off next week.
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