James Spann: Severe weather risk today for northern two-thirds of Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

A layer of deep tropical moisture remains in place across Alabama this morning with dew points in the mid 70s, and precipitable water values in the 95th percentile. Areas of rain were on radar at daybreak over the northern two-thirds of the state.

TORNADO THREAT: While Cindy has officially dissipated, shear associated with the remnant circulation will provide another favorable environment for rotating showers and storms later today, and the Storm Prediction Center has much of north and central Alabama in a severe weather risk.

The main window for isolated tornadoes will come from around noon through 8 p.m., with the main risk along and north of I-20. Like yesterday, these will tend to be short-lived, and warning for them is very challenging. Warning lead times will be very short, and in some cases there will be no warning. Pay very close attention to the weather this afternoon and early tonight.

Because of the tropical nature of the air in place, more heavy downpours are likely today, and a flash flood watch remains in effect for much of central and west Alabama. One of the highest three-day storm totals I have seen is 8.64 inches from Lake View in far eastern Tuscaloosa County. The ground is completely saturated, and we could see some trees coming down today in winds less than 40 mph.

THE WEEKEND: The good news is that we don’t expect any severe weather tomorrow, but scattered to numerous showers and storms are likely ahead of a surface cold front. There’s no way of resolving start/stop times of the rain for any given point; just be ready for a few passing showers and thunderstorms. Then, drier air slips into north Alabama Sunday. The chance of showers will be confined to the southern third of the state, and even there the activity will be pretty scattered in nature. Highs for the weekend will be in the low to mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Dry continental air will cover the state, allowing for a nice chance to dry out. We’ll have mostly sunny, comfortable days and clear, cool nights; low humidity is the forecast Monday through Thursday. There’s a good chance we see lows down in the 50s early Monday and Tuesday morning for a little preview of fall. Moisture will begin to return late in the week, and a few widely scattered showers are possible by Friday.

YESTERDAY’S FAIRFIELD TORNADO: A tornado moved through parts of Fairfield and Ensley yesterday; it was rated EF-2 by the National Weather Service in Birmingham. There were a few injuries at an ABC Beverage store, but thankfully no fatalities.

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