James Spann: Most spots in Alabama stay dry tomorrow through Friday from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

UPPER RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN: Let’s say up front that we will have some risk of an afternoon storm every day through the weekend, but they will gradually become fewer in number each day for the rest of the week as an upper ridge begins to build across the Deep South. Warmer air aloft associated with the ridge means a more stable airmass, making it harder for afternoon convection to initiate.

The chance of any one spot getting wet this afternoon is about 1 in 3, but odds drop into the 15 to 20 percent range tomorrow through Friday.

With fewer showers and storms around, heat levels will be rising. The high today will be at or just over 90, but mid 90s are a good possibility tomorrow through Friday. Generally speaking, temperatures so far this summer have been below average, so you have to figure the heat will break out at some point here in mid to late July.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The ridge begins to weaken slowly, which will open the door for an increase in the number of afternoon and evening showers and storms, especially on Sunday. Otherwise, we will forecast a mix of sun and clouds both days with a high in the low 90s Saturday, and then in the 88- to 91-degree range Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The heat ridge will be centered well to the west of Alabama, and around here we will deal with scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms daily with highs in the upper 80s or low 90s. No sign of any extended periods of excessive heat, thankfully.

IN THE TROPICS: Tropical Storm Don developed yesterday in the Atlantic; it will pass through the Windward Islands tonight, and into the southern Caribbean tomorrow. Top sustained winds are near 50 mph, but the system is not expected to reach hurricane strength. In fact, the National Hurricane Center expects Don to weaken into an open wave by Thursday due a harsh environment near the coast of South America.

Another wave (96L) trails Don in the Atlantic; this will gain latitude, and should pass north of the Leeward Islands later this week. There’s some chance of slow development in the short term, but longer-term conditions don’t look especially favorable.

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