FOGGY START: We have a Dense Fog Advisory up this morning for parts of central and east Alabama; visibility is down to under a quarter of a mile in spots. Once the fog dissipates, the day should be sunny with a high in the mid 60s this afternoon.
REST OF THE WEEK: Look for mostly sunny, pleasant days and clear, cool nights through Friday. Highs will be mostly in the 60s, lows mostly in the 40s. Colder spots will visit the 30s early tomorrow and Wednesday morning. Some scattered clouds will develop Friday, but we still should see a good deal of sunshine.
TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALABAMA: The Storm Prediction Center has defined a severe weather risk on Friday from Northeast Texas up to near Chicago and Indianapolis ahead of a vigorous low that will move into the Great Lakes region Saturday — the “witch of November.”
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A cold front trailing the Great Lakes low will pass through the state Saturday and will bring a chance of rain and storms as the weekend begins. A few strong storms will be possible along the front; the main issue will come from straight-line thunderstorm winds mainly over the northern third of the state, where dynamic forcing will be stronger.
Timing of the rain Saturday is uncertain. The American global model (the Global Forecast System) hints the best chance of rain and storms will come during the morning, while the European model (the ECMWF) is slower, with storms most likely during the afternoon. One way or another, it won’t rain all day; if you have something planned outdoors just be ready for some rain at times, and possibly a strong thunderstorm.
Sunday looks sunny and very cool, with a high in the 48- to 52-degree range; we will be close to freezing early Sunday morning.
NEXT WEEK: The week starts with chilly weather; a widespread freeze is very possible early Monday. Then, later in the week, global models show the coldest air so far this season moving in here by Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, with potential for highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Cold air likely hangs around for the Iron Bowl on Saturday, Nov. 25, but it’s too early for a specific forecast, of course.
TROPICS: A disturbance over the eastern Atlantic has a medium chance of developing over the next five days, but will be no threat to North America. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.
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