Sales: According to the Dothan Multiple Listing Service Inc., Dothan-area residential sales totaled 113 units during November, up 17.7 percent from the 96 units sold in November 2016. Year-to-date sales for the Dothan area total 1,264 units, which represents a 3 percent increase over the 1,227 units sold through November during 2016. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
For all of Dothan’s area real estate data, click here.
Forecast: Closed transactions in November were 28 units (33 percent) above the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s (ACRE) monthly forecast. ACRE’s 2017 sales forecast through November projected 1,139 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 1,264 units, a favorable difference of 11 percent.
Supply: The Dothan-area housing inventory in November was 1,087 units, a decrease of 1.4 percent from November 2016. November inventory was 0.5 percent above October inventory. Historical data indicate that November inventory on average (2012-16) decreases from October by 1.5 percent. There were 9.6 months of housing supply during November (approximately 6 months represents a balanced market), down from the 11.5 months of supply during the same period the previous year.
Demand: November residential sales in the Dothan area decreased 3.4 percent from October. Historical data (2012-2016) indicate that November sales typically decrease 19 percent from October.
Pricing: The Dothan-area median sales price during November was $147,500, a 6.9 percent increase from November 2016 and a 16.2 percent increase from the prior month. This recent increase in median price goes against the historical data (’12-’16), which indicate a decrease of 8.5 percent in median price from October to November. Differing sample sizes (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. ACRE highly recommends consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss pricing trends, as they will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry perspective: “The economy and real estate markets continue to show they are resilient. Regardless of the economic metric — GDP, monthly jobs or home prices — the dashboard registers an ‘all-systems-go’ economy,” said KC Conway, director of research and corporate engagement at the Alabama Center for Real Estate. “GDP started the year off with its best Q1 reading in several years and followed it up with above 3 percent readings for Q2 and Q3. (This year) will be the first year since the financial crisis that the economy registered an annual GDP greater than 2 percent. It was just plus 1.6 percent for 2016.
“Job growth is healthy as well. The first week of December the market received solid monthly jobs reports from both ADP (which measures private industry job formation) and the BLS (the government’s monthly jobs report produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics). ADP reported a healthy new 190,000 private-sector jobs for November and a monthly average of 210,000 jobs over the prior 12 months. The BLS reported November jobs at a higher-than-expected level of 228,000 jobs – and its year-to-date monthly average is 174,000. Unemployment remains low at 4.1 percent, and inflation was just reported on December 13th at 1.7 percent for the “core rate” (which excludes the more volatile food and energy components) and 2.2 percent overall annualized due to higher energy prices.
“The Federal Reserve is taking note of the expanding economy and followed up its prior two rate hikes earlier in 2017 with a 0.25 percent rate increase at its December 13th meeting. Housing conditions remain conducive to growth in new supply and more transaction activity. Single-family home inventories are below demand levels across the nation, Southeast and most Alabama markets. The national rate of appreciation is running above 6 percent on the heels of 5-plus percent in 2016. This is leading builders and lenders to be more receptive to adding inventory. New housing starts and permits will likely end 2017 at or above the 1.3 million units level, split 30 percent multifamily and 70 percent single-family. The outlook heading into 2018 is the best we have seen in a decade.”
Click here to generate more graphs from Dothan’s November Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply.