James Spann: Scattered showers, storms stay in the forecast for Alabama

Published On: 05.23.18 |

By: James Spann

James Spann: Scattered showers, storms stay in the forecast for Alabama

James Spann has the latest on a potential tropical depression or storm impacting Alabama this weekend from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA: Flash flood warnings were issued during the pre-dawn hours for parts of Lee and Russell counties in east Alabama because of a persistent cluster of heavier showers and storms; some places there received more than 3 inches of rain in just a few hours. The rest of the state is fairly quiet at daybreak.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: The overall pattern won’t change. Very moist air hangs over Alabama, and we will deal with scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis. Most of them will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but in this pattern we can’t rule out a late-night or morning shower. Showers and storms will be totally random, and we can’t tell you far in advance where they will form. With fairly light winds aloft they won’t move quickly, and some spots could see heavy amounts of rain, while other neighborhoods are dry. Highs will be in the 80s with a mix of sun and clouds each day.

WEEKEND TROPICAL TROUBLE? The National Hurricane Center now shows a 50 percent chance of a tropical depression forming in the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next five days. The broad low is now over the western Caribbean, and is very disorganized.

There is still great uncertainty in the future of this low. The Global Forecast System pushes it across south Florida, up the east coast of Florida, and then westward into Georgia over the Memorial Day weekend. The European model, however, brings it up toward southeast Louisiana, where it becomes nearly stationary Sunday and Monday. This makes it very difficult to identify the axis of heaviest rain.

For north and central Alabama, we will roll with a persistence forecast for now — warm and humid Saturday through Monday with some sun at times, but the risk of occasional showers and storms all three days. Highs will be in the 80s.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND ON THE GULF COAST: Here are the key points concerning weekend weather on the coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores this weekend:

It is very unlikely that the low in the northern Gulf becomes a dangerous hurricane or tropical storm. Most likely, it will be a broad low, or a tropical depression, as it moves inland this weekend. The main issue will be rain, not wind.
Much uncertainty remains in the placement of the heaviest rain associated with the system. But some coastal communities could clearly see heavy rain at times over the holiday weekend, with some flooding potential.
There will be some breaks in the rain on the Gulf Coast over the weekend, and the sun should break out at times. But there will be more clouds than sun.
The Gulf system will most likely bring the danger of rip currents; be sure and watch for the warning flags. If you see a red flag, do not get in the water. The risk is simply not worth it.

We will have better clarity on the placement of the heaviest rain tomorrow. Just keep an eye on forecast updates if you are headed to the Gulf Coast for the weekend. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

NEXT WEEK: The broad low will meander around the Gulf Coast states early next week and dissipate; very moist air will linger across the region, so we will need to maintain the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms daily through Friday. Highs will remain in the 80s.