SUN, HEAT, HUMIDITY, STORMS: We have your classic case of random, scattered thunderstorms across Alabama this afternoon. As I write this most of the showers are south of I-20, rotating around an upper low over central Alabama.
Showers will slowly fade away late tonight.
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY: Not much change. A moist, unstable air mass will remain over Alabama, and each day we expect a mix of sun and clouds with scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The storms will be most numerous over the southern two-thirds of the state; the risk of a shower across the Tennessee Valley region of far north Alabama will be fairly low. For places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston and Gadsden, the chance of any one spot getting wet each day will be about 1 in 3. Afternoon highs will be in the 87- to 91-degree range. Pretty standard weather for June in Alabama.
NEXT WEEK: We will simply roll with a persistence forecast — partly sunny days, highs 87-91, and each day the round of random, scattered showers and storms most active from about 1 p.m. until 11 p.m. The odds of any one place seeing a shower daily will be in the 30 to 40 percent range. The daily placement and coverage of showers and storms are affected by small-scale boundaries that simply can’t be identified far in advance.
TROPICS: A tropical disturbance moving into the Bay of Campeche will have potential to bring heavy rain to parts of the Texas coastal plain this weekend and early next week; it most likely won’t develop into a tropical cyclone, and it will have no impact on Alabama or the central Gulf Coast. The rest of the Atlantic basin is very quiet.
In the eastern Pacific, Bud is barely a tropical storm, and is near the southern tip of Baja California. It will slowly dissipate in coming days, but some of the moisture will work up into New Mexico and the Southwest U.S. this weekend.
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