RADAR CHECK: As expected, we have scattered to numerous thunderstorms in progress across Alabama this afternoon. Stronger storms are producing heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds. They are moving slowly westward, around the periphery of an upper low over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures are mostly in the 80s with just a limited amount of sunshine this afternoon. Showers and storms will fade away tonight.
TUESDAY: The upper low over the northern Gulf is drifting westward, and we will be in a zone of sinking air on the east side, meaning showers and storms should be fewer in number. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny, and we project a high in the low 90s. The chance of any one spot getting wet Tuesday is about 1 in 5.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Expect classic summer weather for the Fourth of July and the rest of the week — partly sunny, hot, humid days with random, scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Most of the storms will come from 1 until 11 p.m., and the chance of any one community seeing rain will be in the 30 to 40 percent range. Afternoon highs will be close to 90 degrees.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The latest Global Forecast System suggests a surface front could drift down toward the Alabama-Tennessee state line Saturday; this could enhance the coverage of scattered storms as the weekend begins. Sunday’s weather will be determined by the placement of the surface boundary. The 12Z run of the GFS suggests it could make it as far south as I-20, but that doesn’t happen too often this time of the year, and we will maintain the chance of scattered showers and storms on Sunday as well. Highs for the weekend will be mostly between 86 and 90 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds both days.
NEXT WEEK: We will roll with the persistence forecast, although we are seeing evidence that an upper ridge could strengthen over the region over the latter half of the week, which would mean hotter days and fewer showers.
TROPICS: The upper low over the northern Gulf is drifting westward, and tropical storm formation is not expected there or anywhere else across the Atlantic basin this week.
BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.
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