MORE RAIN: The weather pattern will continue to be unsettled for the weekend and into the start of next week, with a weak and dissipating front that should be the focus for numerous showers and storms. While this could spell some extended durations for rain, as in two to three hours, it won’t mean an all-day washout. As we saw Friday, some flash flooding is possible when the relatively slow-moving storms set up and rain for a couple of hours in one spot. A sun/cloud mix starts the day, so the extra clouds should be effective in keeping our high temperatures in the upper 80s. And I’ll take whatever cooling impact we can get to break out of the 90s for a few days.
The front is difficult to identify, with a wind shift across south Alabama but no sign of really dry air until you reach Kentucky. The front will flounder in our area through Monday. This feature, along with a weak area of lower pressure aloft, will maintain the unsettled weather, with numerous showers each afternoon and evening Sunday and Monday. Clouds and numerous storms will hold highs in the middle and upper 80s.
The upper ridge pulls farther westward on Tuesday, maintaining troughiness along the East Coast and keeping the Southeast unsettled on Tuesday, with potential for numerous showers and storms. Look for our highs to be in the upper 80s.
Rainfall amounts over the next five days will continue to be varied because of the nature of showers, but most people will likely see 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. Variations will continue much like we saw yesterday, with some spots getting excessive rain while some locations see a reasonable amount.
REST OF NEXT WEEK: From Wednesday through Saturday, the Global Forecast System maintains the ridge to our west with the troughiness along the East Coast. This maintains a north-to-northwest flow aloft for us in Alabama, keeping any excessive heat at bay with highs around the 90-degree mark. This will also keep a slightly less humid air mass in place for much of Alabama; showers and storms should be much reduced, with only isolated to scattered storms during the afternoon heat. Highs will move up a little, with most places seeing 90 to 93.
LONG TERM: Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS is somewhat bullish on returning the upper ridge to the eastern half of the U.S. by July 18. From then through the end of the forecast period, the 594 contour covers the southern tier of the US from coast to coast. So highs should move into the middle 90s, but scattered storms driven by daytime heating will stick with us.
TROPICS: The tropical Atlantic has become active. Hurricane Beryl is moving steadily westward across the South Atlantic with watches and warnings posted for the Lesser Antilles. The storm has been defying forecasters, but it does appear likely to degenerate at least to tropical storm strength as it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Sunday.
And Tropical Depression Three was about 145 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., this morning. It is expected to meander just offshore into early next week before finally heading northeastward out to sea. It could become a tropical storm later today or early Sunday and would be named Chris.
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Unfortunately there have now been 12 lightning fatalities across the U.S. in 2018. Lightning is frightening, so give it all the respect it deserves and move inside when storms are in your area. Have a great day and Godspeed.
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