MOISTURE LEVELS RISING: Models continue to show an increase in precipitable water values across Alabama in coming days, and accordingly we expect to see an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Most of the showers will come from 1 until 11 p.m. daily, but in this kind of air mass we can’t totally rule out a late-night or morning shower in spots. The chance of any one spot getting wet is in the 40-50 percent range today, then rising to 60-70 percent tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday.
This doesn’t mean washout conditions. The storms will still be rather random and scattered, as you might expect on summer days. But there is a pretty good chance you will have to dodge a shower or storm from time to time. And storms on summer afternoons in Alabama can pack a punch with potential for heavy rain, gusty winds and lots of lightning. Remember, when thunder roars, get indoors!
The high for most communities will be in the low 90s today, then in the 88- to 91-degree range tomorrow through Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: Not much change Monday and Tuesday; look for a mix of sun and clouds both days with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, and highs between 88 and 91. The Global Forecast System model continues the idea of drier air entering the northern half of Alabama Wednesday, with most of the showers and storms shifting down into the southern counties of the state for the latter half of the week. This doesn’t happen very often in July, so we will believe it when we see it. But we will indicate fewer showers and storms in the forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Chris becomes post-tropical today in the colder water of the North Atlantic, and we are still watching the “ghost of Beryl” just northeast of the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center still gives the system a 50/50 chance of regeneration. If by chance anything forms there, it will follow Chris and move northeast, away from the U.S. The deep tropics are very quiet, and there are no tropical systems threatening the Gulf of Mexico anytime soon.
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