ON THE MAPS: A weak surface front is creeping through north Alabama this morning; it represents the leading edge of drier air over Tennessee and Kentucky. The front will stall out around I-20 today, meaning the most numerous showers and storms should be over the southern two-thirds of the state this afternoon. We could see a few showers over north Alabama today as well, but they should be pretty isolated. Otherwise, today will be partly sunny with a high in the low 90s.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: The front will dissipate, so a shower or storm is possible pretty much statewide on these two days; otherwise we will have a mix of sun and clouds with highs up in the low 90s. The chance of any one spot getting wet is around 1 in 3.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A deep upper trough, unusual for July, will form over the eastern half of the nation, and with the usual unstable summer air mass in place, this could set the stage for a batch of organized storms for the northern half of Alabama. It is difficult to be really specific this far out, but the main threat could very well be late Friday night into Saturday morning. Models are painting unusually high severe weather composite index values during this time frame; we might see a few storms with hail and strong winds. An isolated tornado can’t even be ruled out with the anomalous pattern.
But it certainly won’t rain all day Saturday, and the sun will be out at times; the high should be in the upper 80s for most places.
Deeper moisture will be shunted east of Alabama Sunday; for now it looks like any showers will be widely separated. Otherwise, the day will be partly sunny with a high between 85 and 90 degrees.
NEXT WEEK: Monday looks fairly quiet with only isolated showers, but scattered showers and storms should increase Tuesday and Wednesday as moisture levels rise and another front approaches from the northwest.
TROPICS: All remains very quiet across the vast Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.
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