SUN, HEAT, STORMS: The weak front that drifted into north Alabama has pretty much dissipated, and Alabama is in a moist, unstable air mass this morning. We note a few showers over parts of west Alabama around daybreak, and we will deal with scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day, with most of them coming this afternoon and early tonight. The chance of any one spot getting wet is around 1 in 3; otherwise, the day will feature a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the low 90s.
Don’t look for much change during the day tomorrow. It will be partly sunny, hot and humid with scattered storms possible.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING: The air becomes very unstable across Alabama late tomorrow and tomorrow night, with surface-based CAPE values forecast to exceed 5,000 j/kg in spots. The air is pretty unstable just about every summer day around here, but these numbers are pretty robust, even for July. An organized batch of thunderstorms is forecast to roll into Alabama from the northwest tomorrow night, pushing down through the state during the early morning Saturday.
These storms will be capable of producing damaging straight-line winds along with some hail. Based on forecast shear parameters, a tornado can’t be totally ruled out. The core threat will come from about 10 p.m. tomorrow through 10 a.m. Saturday — meaning for some the storms will arrive during the pre-dawn hours. Pay close attention to warnings if they are required, including severe thunderstorm warnings.
REST OF THE WEEKEND: The morning storms should help to stabilize the atmosphere, and Saturday afternoon should be fairly quiet with only isolated showers or storms; the high will be close to 90. Then, on Sunday, expect a partly sunny sky with potential for a few scattered thunderstorms. Sunday’s high will be in the mid to upper 80s.
NEXT WEEK: On the positive side, temperatures should be below average for July with highs generally in the 85- to 90-degree range through the week. There will be sufficient moisture and instability daily for scattered showers and storms, most active during the afternoon and evening.
TROPICS: All remains quiet across the vast Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected anytime soon.
BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.
WEATHER BRAINS: You can listen to our weekly 90-minute netcast any time on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including meteorologists at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on the major social networks:
For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.