TODAY: We’re starting the day out with just a few clouds streaking the sky across central Alabama. Temperatures were around the 70-degree mark. Fog was occurring across the southern portion of Alabama and Georgia, where the moisture levels were the highest. I expect the northern two-thirds of Alabama to be dry today with showers again in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Highs should reach the lower 90s again, but with somewhat lowered humidity, heat indices should not be of concern.
THE WEEK AHEAD: The broad upper-level trough will continue across the eastern half of the country Sunday and Monday. Monday into Tuesday we’ll see a strong short wave over the Dakotas dig into the Middle Mississippi River Valley. We should stay warm Sunday and Monday, with highs in the lower 90s. Monday moisture levels begin to come back up, and isolated showers will be possible.
The digging trough will bring moisture back as the trough axis sets up generally along the Mississippi River. Tuesday should be a wet day with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Clouds and showers should hold highs in the middle 80s. Model guidance for Birmingham paints a high of 82 for Tuesday.
From Wednesday through Saturday, the weather will remain unsettled with the upper trough holding its position and strength generally along the Mississippi River. Highs will be in the middle and upper 80s and will depend on just how extensive the clouds and showers will be. By next weekend, the upper trough will be weakened but still in place, affecting the weather across the Southeast.
Rainfall during the week through Thursday could be fairly substantial for central Alabama, with amounts of 1 to 2 inches over a fairly wide area. There will still be a good deal of variability simply because of the nature of showers.
LONG TERM: Looking out into voodoo country, the Global Forecast System is very bullish on increasing the strength of the upper ridge over the Rockies. Fortunately, the eastern part of the country is forecast to remain out of any extreme heat.
TROPICS: All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin this afternoon; tropical storm formation is not expected through early next week.
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