HOT AUGUST WEATHER: Birmingham’s official high yesterday was 93 degrees; we are expecting similar heat levels today, with most communities climbing into the 91- to 95-degree range. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny, and it will be rather hazy because of some of the smoke from the wildfires in western Canada and the northwestern United States drifting in here in the high altitudes. A few pop-up storms are possible this afternoon, but they should be widely spaced; the chance of any one spot getting wet is about 1 in 5.
Not much change in the weather is expected tomorrow, although the coverage of afternoon showers and storms should be a little higher. The high tomorrow afternoon should be in the low 90s.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: As an upper trough approaches, the air becomes more unstable across Alabama, and with some dynamic support these three days look rather unsettled with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of the showers and storms will come from 1 until 11 p.m., but we can’t rule out some rain during the late-night and morning hours as well. Sunshine will be pretty limited, and highs will drop back into the mid to upper 80s.
NEXT WEEK: The latest global model data suggests the weather remains rather wet at least for the first half of the week, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday; highs hold in the upper 80s. We have seen a few model runs that suggest drier air could enter north Alabama Thursday and Friday, but fronts have a hard time pushing this far south in August, and we will need to maintain the chance of at least scattered showers and storms through the end of the week.
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE: A subtropical depression has formed in the North Atlantic; most likely it becomes Subtropical Storm Ernesto later today. It will move northeast, and will remain far from land. The rest of the Atlantic basin remains very quiet.
SMOKE FROM A DISTANT FIRE: As noted above, upper winds have transported some of the smoke from the wildfires over western Canada and the northwestern U.S. into the Deep South. This is generally 10,000 feet and higher; it won’t affect low-level air quality.
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