James Spann: Alabama’s hot September weather continues through the week

SHOWERS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN: You can count the number of showers over the northern two-thirds of Alabama this afternoon on one hand; they were south of Selma, and north of Prattville at 3:15. We do note heavier storms in scattered spots along the Gulf Coast this afternoon. Away from the isolated showers, it is a sunny, hot day with temperatures around 90 degrees. The average high for Sept. 17 at Birmingham is 85.

REST OF THE WEEK: Don’t look for much change tomorrow through Thursday. It will be mostly sunny and hot, with the chance of any one spot seeing an afternoon shower in the 10-15 percent range and highs around 90 degrees. Models are advertising a deeper moisture field Friday with a one-day bump in the number of showers and thunderstorms. It certainly won’t rain everywhere, but a few spots will see a passing shower or storm during the afternoon and evening; Friday’s high will be in the upper 80s with a partly sunny sky.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Not much change; the upper ridge will hold, meaning mostly sunny days, fair nights and only isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 88- to 91-degree range.

NEXT WEEK: Same story. The ridge holds, meaning above-average temperatures and only isolated showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be mostly in the upper 80s. We’re still expecting the next chance of a pattern change toward the end of September; in around 10 days, that will have potential to bring cooler air into the Deep South.

LONG RANGE: We’re still seeing output from the European model suggesting potential for 4 inches of rain over the next 45 days; there’s no skill in a specific forecast in the long range, but there is some skill in pattern recognition.

TROPICS: There are no hurricanes or tropical storms across the Atlantic basin this afternoon. The “ghost of Isaac” in the Caribbean is not expected to develop; the National Hurricane Center gives it only a 10 percent chance of development over the next five days.

We note the remnants of Florence are still causing problems this afternoon; a tornado has touched down in Richmond, Virginia, with damage and injuries.


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