SHOWERS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN: You can count the number of showers over the northern two-thirds of Alabama this afternoon on one hand; they were south of Selma, and north of Prattville at 3:15. We do note heavier storms in scattered spots along the Gulf Coast this afternoon. Away from the isolated showers, it is a sunny, hot day with temperatures around 90 degrees. The average high for Sept. 17 at Birmingham is 85.
REST OF THE WEEK: Don’t look for much change tomorrow through Thursday. It will be mostly sunny and hot, with the chance of any one spot seeing an afternoon shower in the 10-15 percent range and highs around 90 degrees. Models are advertising a deeper moisture field Friday with a one-day bump in the number of showers and thunderstorms. It certainly won’t rain everywhere, but a few spots will see a passing shower or storm during the afternoon and evening; Friday’s high will be in the upper 80s with a partly sunny sky.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Not much change; the upper ridge will hold, meaning mostly sunny days, fair nights and only isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 88- to 91-degree range.
NEXT WEEK: Same story. The ridge holds, meaning above-average temperatures and only isolated showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be mostly in the upper 80s. We’re still expecting the next chance of a pattern change toward the end of September; in around 10 days, that will have potential to bring cooler air into the Deep South.
LONG RANGE: We’re still seeing output from the European model suggesting potential for 4 inches of rain over the next 45 days; there’s no skill in a specific forecast in the long range, but there is some skill in pattern recognition.
TROPICS: There are no hurricanes or tropical storms across the Atlantic basin this afternoon. The “ghost of Isaac” in the Caribbean is not expected to develop; the National Hurricane Center gives it only a 10 percent chance of development over the next five days.
We note the remnants of Florence are still causing problems this afternoon; a tornado has touched down in Richmond, Virginia, with damage and injuries.
BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.
WEATHER BRAINS: You can listen to our weekly 90-minute netcast any time on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including meteorologists at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on the major social networks:
For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.