James Spann: Beautiful day in Alabama; rain, storms arrive by Thursday

James Spann has the Alabama forecast for the work week ahead from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

SUNSHINE IN FULL SUPPLY: A new supply of cool, dry air has moved into Alabama overnight, and that will set the stage for a delightful autumn day across Alabama with sunshine in full supply and a high in the low 70s. Tomorrow will be sunny as well with a warmer afternoon; most communities will reach the mid to upper 70s.

HALLOWEEN: For Wednesday, the sky will be partly sunny and the day will be mild, with a high in the upper 70s. Moisture levels will begin to rise, however, and we will mention some risk of widely scattered showers during the afternoon and evening. For the trick or treaters, the rain won’t be widespread, and we don’t expect any thunder. But, a shower can’t be ruled out, especially along and west of I-65 through 9 p.m.

RAIN AND STRONG STORMS: A dynamic weather system will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to Alabama late Wednesday night and Thursday. For now, it looks like the core window for this will come from midnight Wednesday night until 3 p.m. Thursday. Rain amounts of around 1 inch are likely.

There will be certainly enough dynamic support for strong to severe thunderstorms, but the question involves thermodynamics. Models are suggesting that there will be little surface-based instability Thursday morning as the storms arrive, which could greatly limit severe potential for the northern half of the state. But if instability values are greater than forecast, the wind profiles suggest we could see a low-end tornado threat.

We will have much better clarity on this system within 48 hours of the event; it’s just something to watch for now. The Storm Prediction Center has defined a risk of severe storms for areas west of Alabama on Wednesday.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday will be cooler with a clearing sky; the high will be in the low to mid 60s. Then, we are forecasting a picture-perfect fall weekend with sunny days and fair nights Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in the 60s and lows mostly in the 40s. Colder pockets will see a low in the 30s.

NEXT WEEK: For now, a decent part of the week looks dry with seasonal temperatures.

TROPICS: Hurricane Oscar is in the middle of the Atlantic with winds of 80 mph; it will move north and then northeast this week and will remain far from land. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

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