STORMY MORNING: A band of heavy showers continues to push into Alabama this morning; it will sweep rapidly through the state over the next few hours. There is little to no surface-based instability over the northern half of Alabama, but there is a fairly high amount of directional shear. The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for roughly the western half of Alabama.
One or two short-lived, isolated tornadoes are possible, but the overall severe weather risk is fairly low for north Alabama because of the lack of instability. There is no lightning associated with the showers early this morning, and winds will be generally in the 20 to 30 mph range as they pass through, well below classic severe limits.
There is a higher severe weather threat for south Alabama, where instability is greater. Storms there could produce strong, potentially damaging winds.
Most of the heavier rain will be east of Alabama, into Georgia, by early afternoon. Clouds linger this afternoon and tonight, with a few lingering showers possible.
MUCH COOLER TOMORROW: Temperatures won’t get out of the 50s across north Alabama tomorrow with lingering clouds; some places near the Tennessee border could hold in the 40s all day. The sky will clear late in the day as drier air works in from the west.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday morning will be cold; we drop into the 38- to 42-degree range, and colder pockets across north Alabama could see some frost. Otherwise, we are forecasting a beautiful weekend with sunny days and fair nights. The high will be in the upper 60s Saturday, followed by low 70s Sunday.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: We’ll have great weather for the high school games across the state Friday night; look for a clearing sky with temperatures falling from the mid 50s at kickoff into the 40s by the fourth quarter.
NEXT WEEK: Look for more unsettled weather for Alabama early in the week; at some point we could be dealing with more strong storms (possibly severe), but model consistency in details is not good. Most likely the core threat will come on Tuesday, but showers are certainly possible Monday as well. The latter half of the week will be dry and cooler.
TROPICS: Former Hurricane Oscar is now a post-tropical system in the North Atlantic. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.
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