James Spann: Showers for Alabama today, a few strong storms tomorrow

James Spann has the Alabama forecast heading into the weekend from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

UNSETTLED WEATHER: Moisture levels continue to rise across Alabama, and we have a few scattered showers across the state on radar at daybreak. Today will be mostly cloudy and mild with occasional showers; the best chance of rain will stay over north and central Alabama. The high this afternoon will be in the 60s, although some west Alabama communities could reach the low 70s.

To the west, severe storms are expected to develop around the ArkLaTex region, where the Storm Prediction Center maintains an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) of severe storms. These storms will move into Alabama well after midnight, but they should be weaker, and no severe storms are expected in our state overnight tonight.

TOMORROW: A rather complex forecast. No doubt we will have showers and thunderstorms around at times, but it certainly won’t rain all day, and the severe weather threat is very conditional.

We will forecast a good chance of showers and thunderstorms during the morning tomorrow. Severe storms are not expected then, although a strong storm or two is certainly possible. Some models show a large mass of storms over south Alabama and near the Gulf Coast; if this happens, it could limit the coverage of rain over north Alabama.

A decent part of the afternoon will be dry as the main dynamic support lifts northeast, away from Alabama. The sun might even break out at times with temperatures rising near 70 degrees. However, the air becomes very unstable and highly sheared. If by chance additional storms develop from noon to 6 p.m., they could be severe. But most of the high-resolution-convection-allowing models show nothing at all during the afternoon.

The SPC maintains a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms from Birmingham south tomorrow, with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for areas north of Birmingham.

If any storms do form tomorrow afternoon ahead of a dry line, they could produce strong, gusty winds, some hail and even an isolated tornado or two. Saturday night should be dry statewide.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Sunday will be a very mild early December day; morning clouds will give way to a partly sunny afternoon. The high will be in the low 70s. Clouds increase Sunday night into Monday ahead of a cold front, but it looks like most of the rain along the front will come over south Alabama, and even there amounts should be light. The high Monday will be in the 60s, and for the northern counties of the state that could come early in the day with falling temperatures.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Saturday’s SEC title game between Alabama and Georgia (3 p.m. Central kickoff) will be played in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (in the dome). For those walking to the game, showers and thunderstorms are likely with temperatures in the 60s. The rain will end Saturday evening.

UAB will take on Middle Tennessee State in the C-USA Championship game in Murfreesboro, Tennessee, Saturday (12:30 p.m. Central kickoff). The good news is that it now looks like most of the rain will be over by kickoff, with just an outside risk of a lingering shower or storm during the game. Otherwise, look for a mostly cloudy afternoon with temperatures in the 60s.

Jacksonville State travels to Orono, Maine, to take on the Maine Black Bears Saturday (11 a.m. Central kickoff). The sky will be partly sunny with 29 degrees at kickoff, rising into the mid 30s by the fourth quarter.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The weather looks cold and dry Tuesday through Friday; highs will be only in the 40s for north and central Alabama on a number of days, with subfreezing low temperatures. It seems like the next chance of rain will come around Saturday, Dec. 8.

LAST DAY OF HURRICANE SEASON: Today is the final day of the Atlantic hurricane season. The 2019 season begins on June 1.

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