Scott Martin: First day of summer brings possible strong storms for Alabama

TODAY: Skies will be mostly clear throughout the day as ridging starts to set up over the Southeast. That will pump more warm and humid air into Alabama. We will have a small chance of a few isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Then, late in the afternoon through the evening, we’ll be watching to our northwest to see if we’ll have a mesoscale convective system moving in this direction. The latest North American Mesoscale model is showing one moving into north Alabama by 3 p.m. It is modeled to progress nearly due southward through central Alabama throughout the evening and late night before dying out over the extreme southern parts of the state right at or just after midnight. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk up for Alabama with the exception of the southwestern parts of the state, while a slight risk is up for much of north Alabama. Damaging winds up to 60 mph will be the main concern. Today’s highs will be in the lower to mid-90s, and with the humidity levels, heat index values will be around 5 to 7 degrees warmer than the actual temperature.

SATURDAY: Ridging will force most of the afternoon shower and thunderstorm development to the eastern half of the state on Saturday. Skies will be partly cloudy with a small chance of isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the lower to mid-90s with heat index values reaching 95-103 degrees.

SUNDAY: We’ll have mostly clear to partly cloudy skies throughout the day with a small chance of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms and higher chances on the eastern side of the state. Highs will be in the lower to mid-90s with some locations possibly hitting the upper 90s.

MONDAY: Shower and thunderstorm chances increase as a shortwave moves into the area. Skies will start off mostly clear, but clouds will be on the increase throughout the day. Those rain chances will increase during the morning hours, and the higher chances will be along and north of the I-20 corridor. Highs will be in the upper 80s to the mid-90s.

TUESDAY: We’ll continue to have slightly higher chances of showers and thunderstorms during the daytime. We should start to see those dissipate by the evening and be dry during the late-night and overnight hours. Highs will be in the mid-80s to the lower 90s.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: We’ll be back to a more seasonal pattern to end out the work week. We’ll have mostly clear to partly cloudy skies on all three days with only a small risk of a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs on each day will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

TROPICS: All is quiet across the Atlantic Basin, and no tropical cyclones are expected to form over the next five days.

BEACH FORECAST CENTER: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region you are interested in.

WEATHERBRAINS: You can listen to our weekly 90-minute netcast any time on the web at WeatherBrains.com or on iTunes, Stitcher or Spotify. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including the meteorologists at ABC 33/40.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.