TODAY: A surface front to the north will set up another day with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. With precipitable water values around or just over 2 inches today, we may see some localized flash flooding. The most active weather will occur from late morning through the early evening, diminishing during the late evening into the late-night hours. There may be a few isolated to scattered showers lingering around overnight. A few storms may become strong with gusty winds, but there is no threat of organized severe weather today. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
SUNDAY: A surface front will stall out over the northern portions of the state. Combine that with a very moist onshore flow, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will become likely during the afternoon and continue through the evening. The activity should wane during the late-night and overnight hours, but a few isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible. Again, we may have some issues with localized flash flooding because of the heavy rain from some of the larger storms. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 80s to the lower 90s.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A short wave is expected to slowly move into the Southeast Monday through Wednesday, which will bring an enhanced risk of showers and thunderstorms each day. While storms will be likely throughout the entire day, most of the activity will occur during the afternoon and evening. A cold front will work through the area Wednesday, which will bring lower rain chances behind the front, but rain will remain likely out ahead of it. Monday’s highs will be in the 80s, but we’re back up into the mid-80s to the lower 90s on Tuesday and into the upper 80s to the lower 90s Wednesday.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Once the cold front passes through, drier air will move into Alabama for Thursday and Friday. We’ll have plenty of sunshine with just a few passing clouds. There may be an isolated shower or two somewhere over southern Alabama Friday, but the odds are almost too small to mention. Highs on both days will be in the mid-80s to the lower 90s.
TROPICS: We have two disturbances we need to keep our eyes on at the moment. The first one, Invest 98L, was just northwest of Miami this morning. No significant development is expected today while it slowly drifts to the north over the Florida Peninsula, but conditions will allow for gradual development once the disturbance moves back over the western Atlantic by Sunday. When that happens, there is a high chance that a tropical or subtropical depression will form as it moves northeastward and away from the U.S. coastline.
The second disturbance, Invest 99L, was around 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands and is moving westward at 10-15 mph. Some organization has already been seen and it is likely to become a depression over the weekend or at the beginning of the work week. Once it reaches the Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week, conditions will not be favorable for further development for a little while. It is too early to tell what happens to Invest 99L after that, but we’ll need to keep our eyes on it as it is expected to continue on a path toward Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba and eventually South Florida.
For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.