Scott Martin: Mainly dry day for Alabama, with a few sprinkles possible early

TODAY: We’ll have mostly cloudy skies throughout the day today with a few sprinkles possible over northern Alabama during the morning. By afternoon, we could see a few breaks in those clouds to let a little sunshine through at times. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 50s to near 60 degrees.

SUNDAY: Skies look to be mostly cloudy throughout much of the day Sunday, but we could see some of those clouds move out for a little while during the latter half of the day. We’ll be dry with afternoon highs reaching the upper 50s to the upper 60s.

MONDAY: We’ll start off the day Monday with mostly cloudy skies, but a low stationed over Arkansas will bring a strong cold front through, setting the stage for potential strong to severe storms during the afternoon through the evening and late-night hours.

Ahead of the front, warm, moist air will be pulled in from the south that will begin to destabilize the atmosphere over Alabama. We could see some shower activity start as early as mid to late morning over the western parts of the state, with the front beginning to move in during the late evening. Afternoon highs look to top out in the upper 60s to the mid-70s.

The Storm Prediction Center has nearly all of central Alabama in a slight risk for severe storms throughout the day Monday, with the exception of the extreme eastern parts of the area. All modes of severe weather look to be possible: tornadoes, damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch in diameter. At this point, the timing for strong to severe storms will be from 2 p.m. Monday to 2 a.m. Tuesday. The higher-resolution models are just starting to come into view, so we’ll have a better grasp on the timing and other details starting this evening.

Global models have been showing that we’ll have decent surface-based instability, strong shear and higher helicity values in place. It is just too early to know at this point if all of the activity will move through as a squall line or if we’ll have discrete supercells form out ahead of the squall line.

TUESDAY: The front will move out of the state during the morning, along with any shower activity associated with it. High temperatures for the day will probably occur at midnight as the colder air moves into the state. Temperatures will be in the mid-40s to the upper 50s during the afternoon with clouds slowly clearing out of the area.

WEDNESDAY: Wednesday will be a cool day across Alabama with maximum sunshine. Winds will be out of the north as a high over eastern Arkansas pulls that colder continental air into Alabama. Highs will top out in the mid-40s to the lower 50s.

THURSDAY: We’ll continue to be under the influence of high pressure centered to our southwest, keeping our weather dry and cool. We’ll start off with sunny skies, but clouds will begin to move in during the late morning and into the afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to mid-50s.

FRIDAY: The high breaks down and we’ll begin to see some moisture move into Alabama throughout the day. Some showers look possible during the afternoon, but those chances look small at this point. Highs will be in the lower 50s to near 60 degrees.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.

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