DRY, MILD AFTERNOON: Most of Alabama remains rain-free this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. Clouds will continue to increase tonight, and a few rain showers will likely move into the state, especially after midnight.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Tuesday will be a cloudy, mild day with occasional showers. It won’t rain all day, and the high will be close to 70 degrees. Not much change Wednesday — expect cloudy, mild weather to continue with showers possible. We could see a few stronger thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, but for now the Storm Prediction Center does not have any severe weather risk defined for the state. If we do see stronger storms, the main issue will come from hail and gusty winds. There’s a good chance we reach the low 70s Wednesday.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Again, Thursday will be a cloudy day with showers possible; the high will be at or just over 70 for most communities. There is considerable model difference concerning Friday; the American global model (the GFS) suggests cooler, drier air will move into the northern half of Alabama, but the reliable European global model (the ECMWF) holds the front up over Tennessee, keeping Alabama in a moist air mass with a chance of showers. We will lean toward the wetter solution for now.

Rain amounts Tuesday through Friday will be around 2 inches over the Tennessee Valley region of far north Alabama, close to 1 inch for places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston and Gadsden, and less than 1 inch over the southern half of the state. We don’t expect any flooding.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: For now Saturday looks like a dry day with a high in the mid to upper 60s. Sunday also will be mostly dry; at the moment it looks like any showers will be few and far between. Sunday’s high will be in the 67- to 70-degree range.

NEXT WEEK: Mild, showery weather is the story for much of the week; for now we don’t see any major signals for severe weather.

DONE WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES? No. While we don’t expect a freeze over the next 10-15 days, we almost always have a late-season freeze in late March or early April. It’s way too early to plant anything that would be harmed by freezing temperatures over north and central Alabama.

ON THIS DATE IN 1957: An earthquake measuring a magnitude 8.6 struck the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. A Pacific-wide tsunami was generated that caused damage in Hawaii, but fortunately no lives were lost. Hardest hit was the island of Kauai, where houses were destroyed and roads washed away. Waves reached 34.1 feet high at Haena, Hawaii.

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