James Spann has the Alabama forecast for midweek from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

STILL QUIET TODAY: We expect a slow increase in clouds across Alabama today, and a few sprinkles might show up in spots this afternoon, but the day will remain generally quiet with a high in the mid to upper 70s. Rain will push into the state after midnight ahead of another dynamic spring storm system.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY: An organized batch of rain and thunderstorms will move into Alabama early Thursday morning. There will be little to no surface-based instability, so these storms should be mostly elevated, but localized wind damage or a tornado is possible along the southern fringe.

What happens during the midday and afternoon all depends on the state of the atmosphere after the morning storms.

The Storm Prediction Center continues an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) from Birmingham south and east, and lower risks (marginal to slight) for areas north and west of Birmingham.

If additional storms can develop during the midday and afternoon, especially south and east of Birmingham, they will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two. This could easily be an “all or nothing” kind of thing. The morning storms have the potential to leave a large, rain-cooled air mass with an effective front near U.S. 80, meaning no severe weather for the northern half of the state. On the other hand, high-resolution models do show a surge of unstable air over east-central and south Alabama during the afternoon, with sufficient helicity values for severe storms.

The bottom line is that there is high confidence in a round of morning storms with potential for strong winds and some hail, but low confidence in what happens during the midday and afternoon. Just stay tuned for updates.

A flash flood watch is in effect for parts of west and central Alabama; rain amounts there around 2 inches could produce some flooding. Totals for the rest of the state should be in the 1- to 2-inch range.

Alabamians need to be very weather aware Thursday. Be sure you have a good way of hearing warnings.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday will be dry; with a partly sunny sky temperatures should reach the mid to upper 70s. A cold front will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms to the state after midnight Friday into early Saturday morning. For now it looks like moisture return will be very limited, and the risk of severe storms will be low. The SPC has a low-end marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe storms defined for the northwest corner of the state before dawn Saturday.

The sky should clear Saturday afternoon with a high around 70. On Sunday, for a change, we won’t have severe storms to deal with. The sky will be sunny with temperatures reaching the low 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday will be dry and mild; global models show a cold front arriving Wednesday with a chance of showers. For now, severe storms are not expected.

ON THIS DATE IN 2003: Tropical Storm Ana became the first Atlantic tropical storm since records began in 1871 to form during April. Maximum sustained winds reached 55 mph. Starting as a nontropical area of low pressure on April 18 about 210 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, it was classified as a subtropical storm early on April 20 and gained full tropical characteristics near 0000 Coordinated Universal Time on April 21, developing an “eye” feature.

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