Scott Martin: Mainly dry for Alabama today, higher rain chances on Sunday

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Today will be a very warm to hot day across Alabama, with partly to mostly sunny skies and only a very slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm along the Mississippi state line. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to the lower 90s from northwest to southeast.

Rain chances will be a little bit higher across the western parts of Alabama on Sunday, but much of the state will stay dry through most of the daylight hours. Rain chances will begin to increase starting in the late afternoon to early evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Storms will move in during the late  night and overnight. Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s as skies continue to be partly to mostly sunny during the day.

NEXT WEEK: The cold front moves through on Monday, bringing Alabama an increased risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the morning, but the activity should be out of here by the afternoon and cooler air will begin to move in late. We’ll have more clouds than sun and highs will be in the upper 70s to the mid-80s. At this point, severe storms are not expected.

An upper low will get hung up just to our northeast for the rest of the work week, which will keep us in drier, continental air, but temperatures will begin to increase in time. We’ll have a mix of sun and clouds on Tuesday with highs reaching the lower 70s to the lower 80s. Wednesday will feature more sun than clouds and highs in the mid-70s to the lower 80s. Thursday will be much the same but a bit warmer, with highs reaching the upper 70s to the mid-80s. The heat is back on Friday, with highs in the mid-80s to the lower 90s and mostly sunny skies.

TROPICAL TROUBLE: As of 5 a.m., the surface low of Invest 90L was just east of the southern tip of the Florida Keys, with winds maxing out at approximately 25 knots. Conditions will become more favorable today, and we could have a tropical/subtropical storm form just northwest of the Bahamas as it moves northeast later in the day. If it is classified as a storm, its name will be Arthur.

Most model members keep it as a mid-level tropical/subtropical storm, but a couple have it becoming a strong storm with winds at or above 55 knots. It will eventually move on out to sea, but rough surf, dangerous rip currents, gusty winds and tropical rainfall will be possible for the eastern Florida peninsula up to the Outer Banks of North Carolina through the weekend. None of this tropical activity will affect our weather.

ON THIS DAY IN 1989: Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the south-central United States. Thunderstorms spawned 20 tornadoes and there were 180 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado at Cleburne, Texas, caused $30 million damage. A violent F-4 tornado touched down near Brackettville, Texas, and a strong F-3 tornado killed one person and injured 28 others at Jarrell, Texas. Thunderstorms also produced softball-sized hail at Shamrock, Texas.

ON THIS DAY IN 1990: Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas to the Upper Ohio Valley. The storms spawned 17 tornadoes, including a twister that killed one person and injured another north of Corning, Arkansas. There were 128 reports of large hail or damaging winds. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person and injured six others at Folsomville, Indiana, and injured five people in southeastern Hardin County, Kentucky. In Arkansas, baseball-sized hail was reported near Fouke and near El Dorado.

BEACH FORECAST: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Panama City Beach, Florida, on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region you are interested in.

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For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.

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