James Spann: Another dry day for Alabama; scattered storms return later this week

James Spann forecasts a mostly dry start for the Alabama work week from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

VERY REFRESHING MORNING: On this first day of June, temperatures are very comfortable early this morning. Some readings just before daybreak:

  • Black Creek — 49
  • Cullman — 50
  • Fort Payne — 51
  • Heflin — 53
  • Gadsden — 54
  • Hueytown — 54
  • Weaver — 54
  • Pell City — 54
  • Talladega — 56
  • Decatur — 56
  • Anniston — 57
  • Huntsville — 57
  • Haleyville — 58
  • Northport — 60
  • Tuscaloosa — 61
  • Muscle Shoals — 61
  • Jemison — 61
  • Sylacauga — 62
  • Birmingham — 64
  • Montgomery — 66

Today will be another mostly sunny day with a high in the 84- to 87-degree range. Humidity levels will gradually rise in coming days, but most of the state should be dry Tuesday, with only isolated afternoon showers.

REST OF THE WEEK: We will bring back the chance of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday as moisture levels continue to rise. Nothing widespread — odds of any one spot getting wet each day will be in the 30% to 50% range. Otherwise, the sky will be partly sunny with highs mostly in the upper 80s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We will roll with a persistence forecast: partly sunny, warm, humid days with random, scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. There’s no way of knowing in advance exactly when and where the showers and thunderstorms will form; you just have to watch radar trends. Highs will be in the 87- to 90-degree range.

NEXT WEEK: We aren’t expecting much change — highs 87-90, with a few scattered storms possible each day. There will be changes in the placement and coverage of them, but the small-scale features responsible for those changes can’t be detected far in advance. In other words, very routine June weather.

TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center has upped the chance of tropical development in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico to 70% over the next five days. The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are inland near the Guatemala-Yucatan border. This large disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward this morning, followed by a northwestward motion later today, and the center of the low-pressure system could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche by this evening. If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some development, and a new tropical depression could form while the system moves little through the middle of this week.

Looking at long-range computer model ensemble output, the higher probabilities of impact in seven days are over either the Texas or Louisiana coasts. Of course, there is no way of knowing right now exactly where this system winds up, or the intensity. We will be keeping a close eye on it.

CENTRAL GULF COAST: While the tropical system in the Gulf most likely won’t make landfall on the Alabama or northwest Florida coast, these areas will be on the eastern, onshore flow side of the system. It will most likely bring a higher coverage of showers and storms to the central Gulf Coast late this week and over the weekend. But I believe you will see sun at times, and the rain certainly won’t be continuous. We will be able to be much more specific once the system develops in a few days.

ON THIS DATE IN 1934: June started off on a warm note as high temperatures surpassed the century mark across parts of the Midwest. Several locations tied or set record high temperatures for June, including Rockford, Illinois, 106 degrees; Mather, Wisconsin, 105 degrees; Hatfield, Wisconsin, 103 degrees; Mondovi, Wisconsin, 102 degrees; Chicago, 102 degrees, and Grand Rapids, Michigan, tied its June record high with 102 degrees.

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