RADAR CHECK: A batch of rain and thunderstorms is moving through northwest Alabama early this morning; the storms are not severe but are noisy, with lots of lightning and heavy rain. This activity will diminish later, but more storms will likely develop by mid to late afternoon, and those could pack a punch. The Storm Prediction Center has roughly the northern half of the state in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms today.
Like recent days, the main threat will come from strong straight-line winds and hail. Otherwise, we expect more clouds than sun today with a high in the mid to upper 80s for most places. The average high for July 1 at Birmingham is 90.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: A humid air mass will remain parked over Alabama, which is what you expect in early July. Look for partly sunny days with the usual risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms, most (but not all) active from 1 until 9 p.m. Most days the odds of any one place getting wet will be around 40%, and afternoon highs will be close to 90 degrees. For the holiday weekend, there’s no skill in identifying the exact coverage and placement of the daily thunderstorms that form; just keep a close eye on radar trends. And, of course, when you hear thunder, get inside.
NEXT WEEK: We will keep the persistence forecast going through the week — partly sunny days with random, scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will hold around 90 degrees.
TROPICS: All remains quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected across the Atlantic basin through the weekend. The peak of the season typically comes in August and September.
LOOKING BACK AT JUNE: The average high for Birmingham during June was 87.7 degrees, which is exactly average for the month. The rain total was 4.04 inches, a little below the average of 4.38 inches.
ON THIS DATE IN 2002: San Antonio, Texas, recorded 9.52 inches of rain to set a new record for its greatest rainfall for the entire month of July.
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