Published On: 08.22.20 | 

By: Scott Martin

Scott Martin: Scattered storms for Alabama this weekend; model madness continues with Laura, Marco

TROPICS: At 4 a.m.,the center of Tropical Storm Laura was around 70 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Laura is moving west near 21 mph, and a generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this morning, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days.

The center of Tropical Storm Marco was around 115 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Marco is moving north-northwest near 12 mph. A northwestward motion is expected Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west-northwest early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today. The center will approach the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by early evening and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday, followed by a track toward the northwestern Gulf Coast Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula, and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday.

Meanwhile, disorganized showers and thunderstorms between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a broad area of low pressure and a tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move westward across the Cabo Verde Islands today, and it will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall there. Some slow development of this wave could occur during the next couple of days while it moves across the eastern tropical Atlantic before environmental conditions become less favorable for development. It has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next five days, around 20%.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Skies will be occasionally cloudy at times throughout the weekend with a decent chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms both days. Most will occur during the afternoon and evening hours, but, with this soupy atmosphere, a few morning and late-night showers and storms will be possible. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s both days.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK: The forecast for the work week all depends on where the two tropical systems end up going, but as of this morning’s update, we’ll see a minimal effect from both storms. Monday will feature mostly cloudy skies with a decent chance of scattered showers and storms throughout much of the day. We could see some tropical moisture being pulled up into Alabama, especially on Monday evening. Tuesday will bring much the same story, as tropical moisture will be available and scattered showers and storms can be expected.

With this latest run of the models, Wednesday is trending drier, with only a few scattered showers and storms possible. Thursday is even drier, with isolated to scattered showers and storms being possible in the afternoon, as much of the moisture will be well to our west with Laura as she moves through Texas. Scattered to numerous showers and storms return Friday as the moisture starts to move into the Southeast. Highs throughout the week will mainly be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

ON THIS DATE IN 1992: Hurricane Andrew makes landfall in southern Florida as a Category 5 storm with wind gusts estimated in excess of 175 mph. Estimated damages exceeded $20 billion, more than 60 people were killed and approximately 2 million people were evacuated from their homes.

BEACH FORECAST CENTER: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Dauphin Island to Panama City Beach, Florida, on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region you are interested in.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.