BLUE SKY: This has been a sunny, cool day for Alabama with temperatures in the 55- to 65-degree range this afternoon. Tonight will be clear and cold, with a low in the 30s for most spots; some frost is likely, and colder spots could touch the freezing mark.

Tuesday will be another mostly sunny day with a high between 67 and 70 degrees. Clouds begin to increase Tuesday night.

SHOWERS, STORMS RETURN: A cold front will bring a band of showers and thunderstorms into the state late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a low-end marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over the northwest part of the state.

Surface-based instability will be very limited, so, despite very high low-level shear values, the overall severe weather threat for now looks fairly low. Heavier storms late Wednesday and Wednesday night could produce small hail and strong, gusty winds as they pass through. Rain amounts of around one-half inch look likely.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The front will stall out over central Alabama Thursday morning; the best chance of showers Thanksgiving Day across Alabama will most likely come over the eastern and southern counties. Otherwise, Thursday will be mostly cloudy with a high in the low 70s. The front will creep northward as a warm front Friday, and the day will be cloudy with a few showers likely (but not an all-day washout). Friday’s highs will be in the mid 70s, about 10 degrees above average for late November in Alabama.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Models are not in particularly good agreement concerning the weekend weather in Alabama. But we will need to mention a chance of showers Saturday with the front still hanging around. Some rain will be possible during Saturday’s Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa, but it is too early to determine the timing or amount of rain expected. The high Saturday afternoon will be between 67 and 72 degrees.

Rain will increase statewide Sunday. New global model data now points to more of a heavy rain event as opposed to a severe weather threat, but they could easily change again. We will have much better clarity on what to expect Sunday after we get past the event Wednesday evening.

NEXT WEEK: Rain should taper off across the state Monday, followed by sharply colder, drier air for midweek, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

TROPICS: A broad area of low pressure a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers well to the northeast and east of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit additional development of the system before the low merges with a cold front on Tuesday. Later in the week, the system could become separated from the front and it might develop some subtropical characteristics while it meanders over the central Atlantic. It is no threat to the U.S., and the Gulf of Mexico remains quiet. The 2020 hurricane season ends in seven days.

ON THIS DATE IN 2004: A two-day flash flood and severe weather event initiated across Alabama. The most destructive weather occurred during the early morning of the following day, Nov. 24. A total of 16 tornadoes touched down across the state, including an F2 in east Alabama that killed a 75-year-old woman in Bynum. A long-track F2 moved through parts of Chilton and Coosa counties; the damage path was 49.1 miles long.

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