James Spann: Strong storms for Alabama late tonight, Thursday morning
WARM APRIL DAY: Temperatures are between 78 and 82 degrees across most of Alabama this afternoon with a partly sunny sky. Clouds will increase over the next few hours, and a band of showers and storms will move into the state late tonight. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for some of the counties near the Mississippi border late tonight, with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) as far east as Huntsville, Columbiana, Autaugaville and Mobile.
Storms could enter west Alabama as early as 10 tonight, but most of the activity comes after midnight into the pre-dawn Thursday. Some of the thunderstorms could produce strong, gusty winds and small hail. A brief, isolated tornado is possible, but not likely. The storms should be generally weakening as they move through, but everyone still needs to be a in a position to hear severe weather warnings if they are needed. Most of the storms should be out of the state by midmorning.
The sky becomes partly sunny Thursday afternoon as a slot of dry air works into the state, and if the sun does break out temperatures will likely soar into the low to mid 80s, making it one of the warmest days so far this year.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The active pattern continues. Another wave will bring a chance of showers or storms Thursday night and Friday, but Friday won’t be a washout; in fact, a decent part of the day will probably be dry. But the air will be very unstable, and storms that form could produce strong winds and hail. Friday’s high will be between 75 and 79 degrees.
Another batch of rain and storms will arrive Friday night into part of the day Saturday, and again we will have some risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. The SPC is keeping parts of west Alabama in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) Friday, with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of the state.
It is too early to know the magnitude of the threat Friday night into Saturday morning; we will have a much better idea in about 24 hours. There is a decent chance the best chance of rain and storms will shift into south Alabama Saturday afternoon, with drier conditions for the northern half of the state. The high Saturday will be between 71 and 75 degrees.
Sunday looks mostly dry statewide with just some risk of isolated showers over the southeast counties. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny Sunday with a high in the mid 70s, very close to seasonal averages for mid-April in Alabama.
NEXT WEEK: Forecast confidence is low with a complex pattern in place and great model variability. Monday looks dry; a few showers are possible Tuesday or Wednesday with a weak surface front drifting into the state. For now we don’t see any severe weather signals next week.
ON THIS DATE IN 1980: Severe thunderstorms spawned tornadoes that ripped through central Arkansas. The storms also produced high winds and baseball-sized hail. Five counties were declared disaster areas by President Jimmy Carter. A tornado causing F3 damage also affected St. Louis and St. Charles counties in Missouri, producing $2.5 million in damage.
ON THIS DATE IN 2006: Severe thunderstorms moved through Alabama, producing more than 20 tornadoes, all EF-0 or EF-1. EF-1 tornadoes touched down near Gardendale and Roebuck in Jefferson County.
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