James Spann: Sun, heat, scattered afternoon storms for Alabama
RADAR CHECK: We have the usual array of random, scattered showers and thunderstorms across Alabama this afternoon. Stronger storms are producing heavy rain and lots of lightning; they are moving to the east and will gradually end after sunset. Away from the showers, temperatures are mostly in the low 90s; the average high for Birmingham on Aug. 9 is 91.
REST OF THE WEEK: A flat upper ridge will stay in place, and the weather just won’t change much through Friday. Expect partly sunny days, highs in the low 90s and the daily round of scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly between 1 and 10 p.m. The chance of any one spot getting wet each day will be 30-40%, and highs will remain in the low 90s, right at seasonal averages.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We will stick with a persistence forecast — partly sunny Saturday and Sunday with highs at or just over 90 degrees, and scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. There’s no way of knowing in advance exactly when and where they pop up; if you have something planned outdoors, you just have to watch radar trends.
NEXT WEEK: There is a little uncertainty early in the week; a tropical system could be in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but there is no way to resolve the location, timing and intensity now if anything forms. For most of the week the routine summer weather pattern continues.
TROPICS: The attention is on Invest 94L in the Atlantic, about 100 miles east-northeast of Barbados. It continues to show signs of organization. However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the system lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to move through portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday and Hispaniola on Wednesday. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required this afternoon with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for those areas.
Models bring the system across Hispaniola and the northern coast of Cuba. This interaction with land, along with dry air, will limit potential intensification. If the system survives, it could wind up in the southeast Gulf of Mexico in five to six days. It’s too early to know whether there will be any impact to the U.S. If the system becomes a tropical storm, the name will be Fred.
The rest of the Atlantic basin, including the Gulf of Mexico, is quiet.
ON THIS DATE IN 1969: An F3 tornado hit Cincinnati, Ohio, killing four people and causing $15 million property damage. The tornado moved in a southeasterly direction at 40 to 50 mph.
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