THIS MORNING: Radar at 5 a.m. showed all of central Alabama was dry, but don’t be surprised to see activity starting to form with the heating of the day. Temperatures were in the upper 60s to the mid 70s. Haleyville was the cool spot at 69 degrees. Troy and Montgomery were tied for the warm spots at 75 degrees. Birmingham was at 73 degrees.THIS WEEKEND: Saturday looks to be a typical late summer day in Alabama. We’ll have partly sunny skies with scattered showers and storms possible during the afternoon and evening. Most of the activity will take place over the northern half of the state. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to the mid 90s.

Sunday looks much the same, but rain chances look a little higher. Storms will be scattered to numerous, with the higher coverage over the northern half of the state. Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

THE WORK WEEK AHEAD: On Monday, we’ll have a cold front moving into the northern half of Alabama and Fred will begin to move onshore, with tropical moisture moving up into the southern parts of the state. For much of Alabama, we’ll have the potential for scattered to numerous showers and storms with slightly cooler temperatures — highs in the lower to mid 80s.

On Tuesday the front moves back to the north as a warm front and the center of Fred move into central Alabama. While the Global Forecast System is not giving Fred much to look at, the European model shows a much better organized Fred bringing gusty winds, heavy rain and the potential for a brief spin-up tornado or two. For now, wind gusts look to reach only 35-40 mph, mainly for locations close to and just east of the center of Fred. Locations southwest of the center may see rain end quickly for the most part. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.

While Fred will be out of the state on Wednesday, he will leave very moist air in his wake. We’ll return to scattered to numerous showers and storms becoming likely by the afternoon hours, with highs in the mid 80s to the lower 90s. We don’t expect much change for Thursday and Friday; scattered to numerous showers and storms become likely by the afternoon, with highs in the mid 80s to the lower 90s.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED: Fred remains a tropical depression this morning and looks very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center has even stated that Fred may have transitioned into an open wave, but will wait for the latest information to come in from the hurricane hunter aircraft. Maximum sustained winds are at 35 mph, and Fred was moving west-northwest at 13 mph.

Fred will eventually get his act together, reorganize and become a tropical storm again by Sunday afternoon. Landfall on the Gulf Coast is now projected to take place close to Orange Beach or Pensacola, with winds around 60 mph. Watches may be issued later today for portions of the northern Gulf Coast. There is a slight risk for flash flooding due to the heavy rains from Fred along the Gulf Coast; totals could reach as high as 3-6 inches, with heavier localized amounts. The biggest threats to the Alabama and western Florida Panhandle Gulf Coasts will be from gusty winds, rough surf, deadly rip currents and heavy rain. A few brief spin-up tornadoes and waterspouts will be possible as well.

TROPICAL STORM GRACE: We also have newly formed Tropical Storm Grace around 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph. Grace was moving west at 22 mph. The hurricane center track is rather similar to what Fred’s was a few days ago, but just a few miles north. Grace is expected to stay at tropical storm strength through Tuesday as it approaches the Florida Keys. We’ll get a better focus on Grace after Fred moves out of the state, but guidance shows Grace potentially moving into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.