James Spann forecasts showers for the northern half of Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

RADAR CHECK: A weakening band of showers is moving into northwest Alabama early this morning ahead of a cold front. There is no risk of severe thunderstorms in Alabama today as the main dynamic support will be passing well to the north. In fact, we probably will have very little thunder. Most of the rain today will come over the northern half of the state during the morning, and amounts should be mostly under a quarter-inch. Otherwise, today will be mostly cloudy with a high between 74 and 77 degrees. The sky will clear this evening.

Tuesday promises to be a beautiful autumn day with sunshine in full supply and a high between 68 and 71 degrees.

MIDWEEK RAIN: Clouds will increase Wednesday ahead of a dynamic weather system that will bring rain and a few thunderstorms to the state late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. New model data shows basically no instability over the northern two-thirds of the state; the severe weather threat will be limited to the southwest counties. The Storm Prediction Center has defined a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for much of Mobile County and the eastern shore of Baldwin County, with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) as far north as Butler, Monroeville and Brewton.

The most widespread rain will likely come from midnight Wednesday night to noon Thursday, but light rain will linger into Thursday night over north Alabama. The high will be in the mid 70s Wednesday, but temperatures will hold in the 60s all day Thursday.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday will be cloudy and very cool, with temperatures not getting out of the 50s across the northern half of Alabama. Some light rain is likely at times over north Alabama through Friday night, especially north of U.S. 278. Any lingering light rain there should end Saturday morning, and we will forecast gradual clearing Saturday afternoon as the deep upper low lifts away from the region. Saturday will stay very cool, with a high between 58 and 62 degrees.

Sunday will be a fabulous fall day with sunshine in full supply and a high in the upper 60s.

NEXT WEEK: For now the week looks dry with pleasant days and fair nights, highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is quiet this morning. A deep, non-tropical low will form by midweek off the upper Atlantic Coast; there is some chance it acquires some tropical characteristics as it moves eastward over the open water of the North Atlantic, but it won’t be a threat to land.

RAIN UPDATE: Here are rain totals for the year so far and the departure from average:

• Mobile — 74.31 inches (18.15 inches above average)
• Birmingham — 63.12 (16.39 above average)
• Tuscaloosa — 61.27 (18.18 above average)
• Huntsville — 57.41 (14.05 above average)
• Dothan — 54.98 (10.41 above average)
• Muscle Shoals — 54.95 (11.14 above average)
• Montgomery — 49.18 (7.5 above average)
• Anniston — 41.45 (0.71 below average)

ON THIS DATE IN 1921: A devastating Category 3 hurricane struck near Tarpon Springs, Florida. The storm caused eight fatalities and is the latest in the calendar year a Category 3 hurricane or stronger made landfall in the United States.

ON THIS DATE IN 2017: The high temperatures in Denver, Colorado, was 84 degrees. By the morning of Oct. 27, the temperature fell to 13 degrees, a 71-degree change.

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