James Spann: Strong storms, falling temperatures for Alabama today
James Spann forecasts showers, strong storms for Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY: A cold front will push a band of showers and thunderstorms through Alabama today, and some of the storms could be strong. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a low-end, marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for most of the state.
Heavier thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong, gusty winds as they pass through this morning. An isolated, brief tornado can’t be ruled out, but is not likely. The line of storms is about to enter northwest Alabama as I write this at 6 a.m.; it will reach places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston and Gadsden in the 9-11 a.m. time frame. The storms will weaken as they push into south Alabama this afternoon as dynamic support weakens.
The rain will be briefly heavy, but no flooding is expected as the storms will be moving along at a good clip.
Temperatures are in the 60s early this morning, but they will fall quickly once the front passes, reaching the upper 40s over parts of north Alabama this afternoon. It feels like spring this morning, but it will feel like winter this afternoon over the northern half of the state.
REST OF THE WEEK: The front will become nearly stationary over the southern counties of Alabama tonight, and that will keep clouds and unsettled weather in place for the rest of the week. South Alabama has a decent chance of showers Tuesday, and north Alabama will be mostly cloudy and very cool, with a high only in the 48- to 52-degree range. Showers are likely statewide Tuesday night into part of the day Wednesday as a wave of low pressure moves along the front.
The weather turns warmer Thursday as the front lifts northward as a warm front; temperatures reach the upper 60s with just a few isolated showers. On Friday we will be well into the 70s as the warm-up continues. Some Alabama communities could be very close to record highs Friday afternoon. A few scattered showers are possible Friday, but no washout.
STORMY SATURDAY: A rather dynamic weather system will bring rain and thunderstorms to Alabama Saturday and Saturday night. The air will be unstable, and we will monitor weather parameters closely this week for severe potential. Most guidance shows a positive tilt to the upper trough, and a large degree of front-parallel flow may tend to undercut convection that develops. This suggests that the overall severe threat may tend to remain more isolated and marginal, and for now the SPC has not defined a severe weather threat area. But expect lots of rain Saturday and Saturday night with amounts around 2 inches for many areas. Daytime temperatures should be in the 60s.
Sunday will be mostly sunny and cooler, with highs in the 50s.
NEXT WEEK: An expansive upper ridge will begin to build across the contiguous U.S. next week, and for now it looks mostly dry and mild.
ON THIS DATE IN 1983: A pre-dawn tornado tore through Selma, killing an elderly man and injuring 18 people. This happened just three days after the Oxford tornado on Dec. 3, which also brought loss of life. Some of the heaviest damage in Selma that morning was in the Rangedale Housing Project, Selma University and a Broad Street business district.
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