THIS AFTERNOON: We have more clouds than sun across much of Alabama, but showers are confined to Mobile and Baldwin counties at mid-afternoon, close to a front near the Gulf Coast. Temperatures over the northern half of the state are between 58 and 64 degrees.

The front will lift northward tonight, and a few scattered showers are possible statewide. Temperatures will hold steady through the night. On Friday, temperatures will climb into the mid 70s, very close to record levels (Birmingham’s record high for Dec. 10 is 79, set in 2007). A few scattered showers or storms are possible, but the main action will be northwest of Alabama, where the Storm Prediction Center has defined an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for parts of the mid-south, including north Mississippi, west Tennessee, Arkansas and west Kentucky.

STORMY START TO THE WEEKEND: Showers and storms northwest of Alabama will evolve into a long line after midnight Friday night and will move into Alabama early Saturday morning. The SPC has defined a slight risk (level 2 of 5) as far east as Athens, Haleyville and Millport for the early morning Saturday, and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of the state during the day.

TIMING: The line of strong to severe storms will likely enter the northwest corner of Alabama around 4-5 a.m. Saturday. The line should reach the Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden and Tuscaloosa areas around 11 a.m.-noon. After noon the line will be south of I-20, pushing into the southern counties by mid to late afternoon. The severe weather threat will not be as great for south Alabama, as dynamic support will be weakening by then.

THREATS: For Alabama, the main threat will come from strong, potentially damaging straight-line winds. A few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out, however. Rain will be briefly heavy, but flooding is not expected.

CALL TO ACTION: Be sure you have a way of hearing severe weather warnings. Your primary source should never be an outdoor siren. Have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home properly programmed with a fresh battery in case of power failure. Be sure emergency alerts are enabled on your phone. Review your severe weather plan; identify the safe place and be sure everyone knows where it is. If you live in a mobile home, know where you will go in case you fall in a tornado warning polygon.

Temperatures will go the wrong way Saturday. We start the day between 67 and 72 degrees, but after the line of storms temperatures will fall into the 50s with a cool northwest wind. The sky will clear Saturday night.

Sunday will be sunny and cool, with a high between 55 and 60 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: The week will be dry and pleasant thanks to an upper high forming over the Gulf Coast region. Highs will be in the 60s Monday through Wednesday and close to 70 Thursday and Friday. The latest Climate Prediction Center outlook suggests temperatures will remain above average across Alabama Dec. 17-23.

ON THIS DATE IN 2003: Although it never threatened land, a subtropical storm became Tropical Storm Peter approximately 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Combined with Tropical Storm Odette from earlier in the month, this is the first time since 1887 that two tropical storms formed in the Atlantic Basin in December.

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