James Spann: Clouds move into Alabama Wednesday, rain by Wednesday night
SUNNY WINTER DAY: Temperatures are between 50 and 55 degrees across Alabama this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. Tonight will be mostly fair and not as cold as last night; lows will be between 35 and 42 degrees for most communities.
Clouds will increase Wednesday, and rain enters the northwest counties late in the day ahead of a cold front. Rain is likely over the northern half of the state Wednesday night; some thunder is possible, but no severe weather is expected. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for areas west of Alabama — parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana and southeast Texas.
THURSDAY: Much colder air spills into the state Thursday, and temperatures could drop below freezing over the northern third of the state as precipitation is ending. There is some risk of a little light freezing rain or freezing drizzle over north Alabama (north of Birmingham) Thursday morning, along with the attendant chance of some scattered bridge icing. For now this still doesn’t look like an especially widespread or major event, but still be aware of the potential. Otherwise, Thursday will be cloudy and cold with rain ending; temperatures will likely hold in the 30s all day over the northern half of the state.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: A complex forecast continues as a wave of low pressure will likely form on the front over the northern Gulf of Mexico Friday. This has potential to spread precipitation northward across Alabama Friday afternoon and Friday night, possibly into Saturday morning. Some light freezing rain is possible Friday morning over parts of south Alabama, and some light snow is possible later in the day and into Friday night across parts of east and northeast Alabama.
The 12Z deterministic runs of the global models have trended drier for the state, shunting most of the moisture to the south and east. The 12Z European ensemble output shows only a 10-30% chance of 1 inch of snow or greater for northeast Alabama.
But the overall pattern still favors some risk of wintry precipitation. It is still too early for a specific forecast involving impact or snow and ice amounts, if any. We will be within 60 hours of the event Wednesday and will have much better clarity on the situation. Keep an eye on updates.
Temperatures will likely hold in the 30s again all day Friday over north and central Alabama, followed by a high in the low to mid 40s Saturday.
SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: Sunday will be mostly sunny with a high in the upper 40s. Monday will be dry, but global models continue to suggest some risk of rain Tuesday with another northern Gulf of Mexico low.
ON THIS DATE IN 1971: A warm Santa Ana condition brought a 95-degree reading to Los Angeles, the highest January temperature on record. It was 95 degrees in Palm Springs, the highest temperature on record for January as well.
ON THIS DATE IN 1973: The first tornado death of the year was registered north of Corey, Louisiana, during the afternoon. Although a girl was killed when a tenant farm was destroyed, a baby received only minor injuries when it was carried 300 to 400 yards by the tornado.
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