DRY, COOL WEEKEND: After a cold start, with morning lows in the upper teens to the lower 30s, a trough will keep us rather cool. Any leftover clouds will move out and afternoon highs will be in the upper 30s to the upper 40s. The trough will be forced a little eastward Sunday, allowing for the lead edge of a ridge to move into the Southeast. That will bring sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures, with highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

WINTRY MISCHIEF BY THE END OF THE WEEK? A surface low will form off to our southwest on Monday and will begin to head in our direction. We’ll have showers likely throughout the day Tuesday, especially along and south of the I-20 corridor. Highs will be in the mid-40s to the mid-50s.

The trough really deepens Wednesday, reinforcing the cooler air. We’ll have plenty of sunshine, but it will definitely feel like winter, as highs will be only in the upper 30s to the lower 50s across the state from northwest to southeast. The trough flattens out Thursday, but we’ll remain cool with plenty of sunshine. Highs will be in the mid-40s to the lower 50s.

A weak frontal system will move through on Friday, but at this point it looks to be moisture-starved. I can’t rule out a stray shower or two, but for now it looks like we’ll be mainly dry. The European model shows a much different picture, as showers mixed with snow look possible from the afternoon through the evening on Friday. Highs look to be in the mid 40s to the lower 50s.

TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL OUTLOOK: The Global Forecast System shows that Birmingham could see a little more than an inch-and-a-half of rainfall between now and Sunday, Feb. 6, at midday. The National Blend of Models shows highs mostly in the 40s through the end of the month, except for a few 50s for Sunday through Tuesday and a couple of days at the end of the run. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s.

ON THIS DATE IN 1943: Chinook winds during the early morning caused the temperature at Spearfish, South Dakota, to rise from 4 below zero to 45 above in just two minutes, the most dramatic temperature rise in world weather records. An hour-and-a-half later, the mercury plunged from 54 above to 4 below zero in 27 minutes.

ON THIS DATE IN 2000: A severe ice storm hit northern Georgia and portions of northwest South Carolina. More than a half-million utility customers were without power during and after the storm, with the Atlanta area severely affected.

BEACH FORECAST: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Dauphin Island to Panama City Beach, Florida, on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region you are interested in.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.