James Spann: Strong to severe storms possible tonight across north, west Alabama
RADAR CHECK: The radar is pretty quiet at mid-afternoon across Alabama. We have a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures mostly in the low to mid 70s. A few spots over west Alabama are not too far from 80 degrees, including Tuscaloosa. An approaching cold front will bring the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms to parts of north and west Alabama tonight; the Storm Prediction Center maintains a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for areas north of a line from Fort Payne to Oneonta to Northport to Aliceville. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) extends down to Jacksonville, Alabaster and Livingston.
TIMING: The window for strong to severe thunderstorms will come from 6 p.m. until midnight. Storms weaken after midnight as the air becomes more stable.
THREATS: Stronger thunderstorms in the slight risk area will be capable of producing hail, strong straight-line winds and a tornado or two. The severe weather threat in the marginal risk area is low.
RAIN: Amounts of 1-2 inches are likely tonight and early Wednesday over the northern third of the state; a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for areas north of a line from Millport to Jasper to Oneonta to Fort Payne. Amounts will be much lighter over central and south Alabama.
Be sure you can hear severe weather warnings tonight if they are needed.
REST OF THE WEEK: The front will stall out Wednesday over central or south Alabama. A few scattered showers are possible south of the front over the southern half of the state; otherwise the sky will be mostly cloudy. Highs will be in the 60s across north Alabama, with 70s to the south. The front lifts northward Wednesday night, and Thursday looks like the warmest day so far this year, with highs between 75 and 80 degrees. We expect a mix of sun and clouds with only a handful of isolated showers; most places will be dry.
Another cold front will bring rain back into the state Friday morning; a thunderstorm is possible as well, but severe storms are not expected. Friday will be cooler, with daytime temperatures in the 50s over the northern half of the state.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be mostly cloudy with a few scattered showers possible; the high will be between 49 and 54 degrees. Rain becomes more widespread Saturday night thanks to a wave of low pressure moving along the front to the south. We expect a clearing sky Sunday with a high in the low to mid 50s.
NEXT WEEK: For now the week looks mostly rain-free with temperatures a little below average for early March.
ON THIS DATE IN 1998: Seven tornadoes struck east-central Florida late on this date and early on Feb. 23. Three of the tornadoes were rated F3 on the Fujita scale. A total of 42 people were killed, 24 in Kissimmee alone, with 265 injured. Total damage was $106 million.
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