James Spann forecasts a dry, mild St. Patrick’s Day for Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

FOGGY START: A dense fog advisory is in effect for the northern two-thirds of Alabama early this morning, but once that fog dissipates we expect a very nice, springy day, with ample sunshine and a high in the mid 70s this afternoon. It will be the warmest day of the week. Clouds return tonight ahead of the next storm system.

ACTIVE DAY FRIDAY: The Storm Prediction Center has defined a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms Friday for areas south of a line from Demopolis to Calera to Wedowee, and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) north of that line for the rest of the state.

There will be two rounds of thunderstorms Friday. Round one will come during the morning (mostly between 5 a.m. and noon), and these storms will be elevated due to the lack of surface-based instability. The main threat with the morning round will come from heavy rain and gusty winds, but an isolated tornado is possible over the southwest corner of the state, where some instability will be available.

Round two will come during the late afternoon and evening (mostly between 3 and 8 p.m.); this activity will be more scattered, and the severe weather threat is somewhat conditional. If the air can recover from the morning storms, these thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail, strong winds and a few tornadoes. The bottom line is that Alabamians need to be weather aware and in a position to hear severe weather warnings if they are needed. The high will be in the low 70s, maybe mid 70s if we can get some sun during the early afternoon lull in thunderstorm activity.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We are forecasting dry weather over the weekend with mostly sunny, pleasant days and fair, cool nights. The high will be in the mid 60s Saturday, followed by low 70s Sunday. The low early Sunday morning will be between 35 and 40 degrees. Some of the colder spots could see frost and maybe even a light freeze.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry and mild, with a high in the mid 70s. A robust weather system will bring a round of rain and storms to the state Tuesday night and Wednesday. There will most likely be a risk of severe thunderstorms, and the SPC has most of the state in a severe weather risk. But it is still too early to know the magnitude of the event, the threats and the timing. Once we get the system Friday out of here we can be much more specific. Dry weather will return Thursday and Friday.WEDNESDAY’S FLOODING: A slow-moving thunderstorm brought flash flooding to parts of Birmingham Wednesday afternoon; our Skywatcher in the Oxmoor Valley reported 4.02 inches, and the total at Crestwood was 3.16 inches. There were eight water rescues, and one man is in critical condition after bring pulled from flood waters.

ON THIS DATE IN 1990: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow-moving cold front produced torrential rains across parts of the southeastern U.S. over two days. Flooding claimed the lives of at least 22 people, including 13 in Alabama. Up to 16 inches of rain deluged southern Alabama, with 10.63 inches reported at Mobile in 24 hours. The town of Elba was flooded with 6 to 12 feet of water causing more than $25 million damage, and total flood damage across Alabama exceeded $100 million. Twenty-six counties in the state were declared disaster areas.

ON THIS DATE IN 2021: A total of 25 tornadoes touched down in Alabama, including three rated EF-2. The longest-track tornado was 36.5 miles, from Wayne County, Mississippi, to southern Marengo County, Alabama. There were no fatalities; two were injured in an EF-2 tornado at Burnsville in Dallas County (near Selma), and there was one minor injury in an EF-0 tornado north of Birmingham near Mount Olive.

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