James Spann: A few strong storms over NW Alabama this evening; mostly dry Tuesday
RADAR CHECK: We have a few scattered, strong thunderstorms over northwest Alabama this afternoon; heavier storms are producing small hail as they move northeast. Hail and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms this evening, mainly in areas west and north of Birmingham; the storms will fade quickly after sunset. For the rest of Alabama, we have a partly sunny sky with temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
Tuesday will be warm and mostly dry; any showers should be few and far between. With a partly sunny sky, the high will be in the mid 80s. On Wednesday, we expect an increase in the number of scattered showers and storms over the northern half of Alabama as a weak front drifts down toward the Tennessee Valley. The chance of any one spot getting wet is 10-15% Tuesday and 30-40% Wednesday.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Models are trending slower with the next system that arrives late in the week. It now looks like Thursday will be mostly dry and the main threat of strong to severe storms will come during the day Friday; the Storm Prediction Center has the western third of the state in a risk in the outlook that runs through 7 a.m. Friday. Confidence in the forecast is not especially high; we will have a much better look at the situation once we get within 60 hours of the event and within range of the high-resolution models. But for now Friday looks like a potentially active thunderstorm day with a threat of hail, strong winds and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes. The high will be in the mid 80s Thursday and closer to 80 degrees Friday.
MOTHER’S DAY WEEKEND: For now the weekend looks dry and pleasant. Expect a partly to mostly sunny sky with a high in the upper 70s Saturday and low 80s Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: Much of next week looks warm and quiet, with just a few isolated showers; highs will be in the 80s.
ON THIS DATE IN 1929: Virginia’s worst tornado disaster occurred. Six tornadoes, two of which were west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, killed 22 people. One tornado killed 12 children and a teacher at Rye Cove in Scott County. The storms destroyed four schools.
ON THIS DATE IN 2010: The Nashville/Middle Tennessee historic flood continued. Some areas received nearly 20 inches of rain May 1-2, the highest of which was 19.41 inches reported in Camden, Tennessee. Numerous rainfall records were broken at the Nashville International Airport, including the most rain received in a six-hour period, highest calendar day rainfall and wettest month. Incredibly, the Nashville Airport experienced its wettest and third-wettest days in history on back-to-back days. Many area rivers exceeded their record crest levels, including the Harpeth River near Kingston Springs, which rose to 13.8 feet above the previous record. The Cumberland River at Nashville reached its highest level since flood control was implemented in the late 1960s, flooding parts of downtown Nashville. Waters from the Cumberland reached as far inland as Second Avenue, flooding many downtown businesses.
BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.
WEATHER BRAINS: You can listen to our weekly 90-minute show any time on your favorite podcast app. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including the meteorologists at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on the major social networks:
For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.
