James Spann: Warm days for Alabama with a few scattered showers, storms
James Spann forecasts a warm day for Alabama, with a few storms possible from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.
SUMMER-LIKE WEEK: With a partly sunny sky, look for a high in the mid 80s across Alabama this afternoon; the average high for Birmingham on May 2 is 79. A few widely scattered showers and storms will likely form during the afternoon and evening; odds of any one spot getting wet today are 20-30%. The Storm Prediction Center has defined a low-end marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the northwest corner of the state, where a few storms could produce hail and gusty winds.
Tuesday will be warm and mostly dry with only isolated showers as the upper ridge holds; the high will be in the mid 80s. Scattered showers and storms should be a little more numerous over the northern half of the state Wednesday as a weakening cold front approaches. The chance of any one spot getting wet is 10-20% Tuesday and 50-60% Wednesday.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: While most of the day Thursday will be warm and dry, a band of organized showers and storms will likely push into the state late Thursday night into early Friday morning. The SPC has defined a severe weather risk for much of west Alabama with this system.
The higher severe weather probabilities Thursday are across the Mid-South, including places like Memphis. But storms could produce strong winds and hail as they move through Alabama, and maybe a brief, isolated tornado or two. The core window for strong to severe thunderstorms for Alabama will come from about midnight Thursday through noon Friday. We will be much more specific about the threat as the event gets closer.
The sky will clear late Friday afternoon over the northern half of the state as drier air returns; the high will be between 77 and 80 degrees.
MOTHER’S DAY WEEKEND: For now Saturday looks dry and pleasant with a good supply of sunshine and a high around 80 degrees. Moisture will return Sunday, and a few scattered showers are possible, but it won’t be a washout or an all-day rain. The sun will be out at times and the high will be in the low 80s.
NEXT WEEK: For now much of the week looks quiet, although a few widely scattered showers could pop up from time to time. Highs will be in the 80s.
ON THIS DATE IN 1929: Virginia’s worst tornado disaster occurred. Six tornadoes, two of which were west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, killed 22 people. One tornado killed 12 children and a teacher at Rye Cove in Scott County. The storms destroyed four schools.
ON THIS DATE IN 2010: The Nashville/Middle Tennessee historic flood continued. Some areas received nearly 20 inches of rain May 1-2, the highest of which was 19.41 inches reported in Camden, Tennessee. Numerous rainfall records were broken at the Nashville International Airport, including the most rain received in a six-hour period, highest calendar day rainfall and wettest month. Incredibly, the Nashville Airport experienced its wettest and third-wettest days in history on back-to-back days. Many area rivers exceeded their record crest levels, including the Harpeth River near Kingston Springs, which rose to 13.8 feet above the previous record. The Cumberland River at Nashville reached its highest level since flood control was implemented in the late 1960s, flooding parts of downtown Nashville. Waters from the Cumberland reached as far inland as Second Avenue, flooding many downtown businesses.
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