James Spann forecasts rain for dry Alabama on Wednesday from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

ANOTHER BIG WARM-UP: We are forecasting a high between 81 and 85 degrees across Alabama today with a sunny sky. The average high for Birmingham on Oct. 11 is 78. Clouds will increase late tonight as moist air returns.

RAIN RETURNS: Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with developing showers and possibly a thunderstorm. This won’t be an all-day rain, but occasional showers are likely. Then, an organized line of storms is likely along a cold front late Wednesday night.

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms to include areas as far south as Thomasville, Prattville and Wedowee.The air will become unstable across Alabama Wednesday afternoon and night, and model data suggests there could be enough shear for a few rotating updrafts, meaning the risk of a brief isolated tornado or two. Strong storms will also be capable of producing strong straight-line winds and some small hail. The main window for heavier storms will come from about 3 p.m. Wednesday through 3 a.m. Thursday. While this isn’t a major severe-weather threat, it is always a good idea to be sure you can hear severe-weather warnings if they are needed.

On the positive side, rain amounts of one-half to 1 inch look likely now for most of the state, with potential for isolated heavier amounts. This will end a long dry spell; these notes are based on data from Birmingham:

• This will be the 16th consecutive day with no measurable rain.
• There has been no measurable rain on 29 of the last 30 days.
• The last measurable rain was on Sept. 25, and the total was only three-hundredths of an inch.
• The last really big rain day here was Sept. 4, when the total was 1.55 inches.

Showers and storms will likely end by daybreak Thursday, and the sky becomes partly to mostly sunny with a high in the upper 70s.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Look for sunny weather Friday and Saturday with cool mornings and warm afternoons; highs will be in the low 80s, but lows will be in the 40s and 50s. The sky will be partly sunny Sunday, and a cold front could push a few showers into the state Sunday night — probably not a big rain event with limited moisture. The high Sunday will be in the low 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Noticeably cooler air rolls into the state next week; highs drop into the 60s most days with lows in the 30s and 40s. Many places over the northern half of the state could experience their first frost of the season by midweek. For now, much of the week looks dry.TROPICS: A trough of low pressure over southeastern Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche and adjacent land areas. This system is forecast to move slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form within the next day or two while the system meanders over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. After that time, increasing upper-level winds are likely to hinder additional development. This system is no threat to the U.S., and the rest of the Atlantic basin is very quiet.

ON THIS DATE IN 1846: A major hurricane, possibly a Category 5, moved through the Caribbean Sea. This Great Havana Hurricane struck western Cuba on Oct. 10. It hit the Florida Keys on Oct. 11, destroying the old Key West Lighthouse and Fort Zachary Taylor.

ON THIS DATE IN 1906: Games 1 and 2 of the all-Chicago World Series were played amid snow flurries. Snow would not happen again in a World Series until 1997. The high temperature for game 3, played on this day, was 43 degrees.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.