NEW YEAR’S EVE: We’re starting off with some fog and a few light showers over portions of Alabama today; as a short wave moves through the state, we can expect more shower development through the morning and into early afternoon. By late afternoon, the activity will be exiting eastern Alabama, but it will remain mostly cloudy. Patchy fog will be likely tonight, especially at midnight. Highs will be in the lower 60s to the lower 70s.NEW YEAR’S DAY: We’ll start off the first day of 2023 with mostly cloudy skies and some patchy fog, but skies will start clearing out by late morning. We’ll end up with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Increasing moisture levels and a southerly flow over Alabama on Monday will help to destabilize the atmosphere, and an approaching cold front will set the stage for scattered showers and storms to form. The best rain chances through the day will be over the western half of the state, but everyone will have a chance of rain. Highs will be in the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

Conditions on Tuesday will bring the risk of severe weather to Alabama; the Storm Prediction Center has a level 2 slight risk up for nearly the entire state. At this point, all modes of severe weather will be possible as dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s, instability values and shear rates will be high enough, and lapse rates will be supportive of robust updrafts. Timing on the severe threat looks to be from midday through late night. Rain will be heavy at times as well, and some flooding will be possible. We’ll have better detail on this threat when the high-resolution models come into play. Highs will be in the mid 60s to the mid 70s.

The cold front will finally begin to move through the state on Wednesday. We’ll start to dry out from northwest to southeast by midday. However, rain and storms will continue along and ahead of the front. Rain may be heavy at times, so we’ll have to continue to watch for flooding. At this point, we will not have to worry about a severe weather threat. Rain should be out of southeastern Alabama by sunrise Thursday morning. Highs will be in the upper 50s to the lower 70s.

A continental flow moves in and takes over the pattern to end off the work week. Thursday will be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 40s to the lower 60s. Friday looks to be sunny with highs in the upper 40s to the upper 50s.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.