SUNNY, COOL AFTERNOON: Temperatures are mostly between 47 and 55 degrees across Alabama with a good supply of sunshine through high, thin cirrus clouds. The average high for Birmingham on March 20 is 68. And despite the arrival of spring this afternoon (the equinox comes at 4:24 p.m.), another freeze is likely for much of the state tonight. We project lows early Tuesday generally between 25 and 35 degrees, and a freeze warning is in effect for much of the state again.

WARMING TREND: Temperatures Tuesday rise well into the 60s with a partly sunny sky. The weather stays dry Wednesday and Thursday, and the warming trend continues. The high will be in the 70s Wednesday, and most places will see low 80s Thursday.

FRIDAY: The day Friday will be warm and dry, with a high in the low 80s, but a cold front will push an organized band of showers and thunderstorms into the state Friday night and early Saturday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has areas north and west of Birmingham in a severe weather risk Friday night.

For now, it looks like the main risk of severe storms will come from 10 p.m. Friday through 6 a.m. Saturday. Most likely this will be a linear event with the main threat coming from strong winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. The main limiting factor will be the lack of surface-based instability, but we really won’t know the magnitude of the threat until later this week.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Rain ends early Saturday, and the sky will clear later in the day with a high in the 70s. Sunday looks dry and mild, with a high also in the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: A disturbance will bring the risk of showers Monday and Tuesday, followed by dry weather for the latter half of the week. Highs will be mostly in the 70s.

For now, it looks like the main risk of severe storms will come from 6 p.m. Friday through 6 a.m. Saturday. Most likely this will be a linear event with the main threat coming from strong winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. The main limiting factor will be the lack of surface-based instability, but we really won’t know the magnitude of the threat until later this week.

ON THIS DATE IN 1905: A tornado estimated at F3 strength moved through parts of Chambers and Randolph counties in east Alabama; nine were killed.

ON THIS DATE IN 1998: A deadly tornado outbreak occurred over portions of the southeastern United States. Particularly hard hit were rural areas outside of Gainesville, Georgia, where at least 12 people were killed during the early morning. The entire outbreak killed 14 people and produced 12 tornadoes across three states. The town of Stoneville, North Carolina, was hard hit by the storms.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.