RADAR CHECK: We have a few scattered showers across east and south Alabama at mid-afternoon, but much of the state is dry. A warm front is moving slowly northward; we have a big temperature contrast on either side of the front. Mobile was up to 84 degrees at 2 p.m., while Huntsville was at 61 on the north side of the front. Showers and storms are still expected to form along and south of the warm front over the next few hours, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains a low-end marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for areas south of a line from Kennedy to Alabaster to Tuskegee to Phenix City.

Stronger storms that form this evening could produce hail and strong, gusty winds. The tornado threat is low.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: We expect the warmest weather so far this year, with highs in the 80s statewide. Much of the state will be dry with only isolated showers or storms. A band of rain and thunderstorms will likely push slowly into north Alabama Wednesday night; the SPC maintains a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for areas north of a line from Demopolis to Pelham to Alexandria.Storms Wednesday night could produce gusty winds, but with weak dynamic support and limited instability, the overall threat looks low at this point.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The front will stall out over central Alabama, and periods of rain are likely both days with potential for a few thunderstorms as well. There will be a big thermal contrast across the state due to the front; highs range from the 60s across north Alabama to the 80s over the southern quarter of the state.

EASTER WEEKEND: We will maintain the chance of rain at times on Saturday, but at this point Sunday looks generally dry with a partly sunny sky. The big temperature range will continue Saturday with 60s for north Alabama, 70s for the central counties and 80s near the coast. The high Sunday will be mostly in the 70s statewide.

NEXT WEEK: Model guidance remains inconsistent and forecast confidence remains low. A disturbance will likely bring a chance of rain Monday night or Tuesday, followed by dry weather for the rest of next week. Models are trending a bit warmer, and odds of a late-season frost or freeze by midweek are lower.

ON THIS DATE IN 1974: The 1974 Super Outbreak was underway. It was the second-largest tornado outbreak on record for a single 24-hour period, just behind the 2011 Super Outbreak. It was also the most violent tornado outbreak ever recorded, with 30 F4 or F5 tornadoes confirmed. On April 3–4, there were 148 tornadoes confirmed in 13 U.S. states and the Canadian province of Ontario.

In Alabama, at least eight tornadoes, including four extremely intense and long-lived storms, brought death and extreme storm destruction that night. The communities of Guin and Jasper were hit hard. Eighty-six people were killed and 949 were injured. Sixteen counties in the northern part of the state were hit the hardest. It ranks as the third-deadliest tornado outbreak in Alabama history. It is surpassed by the tornado outbreak of March 21, 1932, when more than 300 people died in a series of tornadoes, as well as the historic outbreak of April 27, 2011, when 252 Alabamians lost their lives.

ON THIS DATE IN 1987: Alabama had a surprise snow event. Parts of the state had more than 5 inches of snow; 1 inch was measured down to Montgomery. It is the biggest April snow event on record in the state. Birmingham’s official total was 6 inches.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.