CHANGES AHEAD: Rain is falling along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, east of an upper low that is spinning over southwest Louisiana. The rest of Alabama is dry and mild, with temperatures in the 70s. Clouds will increase statewide tonight, and we will mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a low-end marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for the southern two-thirds of the state.

Buoyancy will be modest, and wind dynamics not especially strong, but a few strong storms are possible during the peak of the daytime heating process, with potential for small hail and gusty winds. A brief, isolated tornado can’t be totally ruled out but isn’t likely. This won’t be an all-day rain, and highs will be between 65 and 75 degrees with a mostly cloudy sky.

A few lingering scattered showers are possible Friday over the northern half of the state; otherwise, the day will be generally cloudy with a high in the 70s. A decent part of the day Friday will be dry.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be warm and dry. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny, and we expect afternoon temperatures to reach the low to mid 80s. A cold front will push a band of showers and thunderstorms into the state late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Initially storms could be strong as they push into the northwest corner of the state, with some potential for hail after midnight Saturday night, but they should weaken quickly before dawn and the overall severe weather threat for the rest of the state is very low.

Models are trending a little slower; it now looks like the main window for rain over the weekend will come from about midnight Saturday night through noon Sunday. Some clearing is possible over the western half of the state Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday will be in the 60s over the northern half of the state, with 70s to the south.

NEXT WEEK: At this point the weather looks dry Monday through Thursday with highs mostly in the 70s and 80s. Global models hint that moist air will return Friday with some risk of showers.

ON THIS DATE IN 1945: A series of significant tornadoes raked Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and Illinois. Antlers, Oklahoma, was nearly obliterated by a massive F5 tornado that zigzagged from southwest to northeast across the town. Sixty-nine people died in the twister. Another tornado killed eight people in Oklahoma City.

ON THIS DATE IN 2020: A tornado outbreak was underway that lasted through April 13. Throughout the two-day outbreak, a total of 141 tornadoes touched down across 10 states, inflicting widespread and locally catastrophic damage. The outbreak ranks third for producing the most tornadoes in a 24-hour period, with 132 tornadoes; that tally is surpassed only by the 1974 Super Outbreak, with 148, and the 2011 Super Outbreak, with 219. The strongest tornado of the outbreak occurred in southern Mississippi and was given a high-end EF4 damage rating after producing estimated winds of 190 mph, reaching a width of 2.25 miles and causing eight deaths.

In Alabama, more than two dozen tornadoes touched down over the northern half of the state. This included a damaging rain-wrapped EF2 that struck a residential area at the southwestern outskirts of Boaz, injuring three people. Later, a high-end EF1 caused major damage and three injuries in Carbon Hill.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

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