James Spann forecasts mostly quiet weather for Alabama from Alabama News Center on Vimeo.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEK: We expect a high between 87 and 93 degrees across Alabama today with a partly sunny sky; a few isolated showers are possible this afternoon and early tonight, mainly over the eastern and southern counties. The average high for Birmingham on Sept. 11 is 87.

The weather won’t change much Tuesday, but showers could be a little more numerous during the afternoon with the approach of a surface front. Cooler air slips into the state over the latter half of the week, with highs dropping into the 81- to 85-degree range over the northern counties and upper 80s for south Alabama. The front will become nearly stationary, meaning we will maintain the chance of a few scattered showers daily, but nothing especially heavy or widespread.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We will maintain the risk of a few showers over the weekend, but it certainly won’t be a washout, and the sun will be out at times. The chance of any one spot seeing rain is 30-40% Saturday and 50-60% Sunday. Highs will remain in the low 80s for north Alabama, with mid to upper 80s to the south.

NEXT WEEK: While we will have a few days with scattered showers, we still don’t see any widespread, heavy, high-impact rain event through the week. Highs will be in the 80s, lows in the 60s.

TROPICS: Hurricane Lee is a Category 3 storm with winds of 120 mph, and about 650 miles south/southeast of Bermuda early this morning. Most of the intensity models support an intensity peak within the next day or so, and this is reflected in the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. Thereafter, the large wind field and slow motion of Lee could cause upwelling of cooler waters. In addition, the hurricane is likely to encounter increasing southwesterly shear from a trough later in the period, as well as the cool wake left behind by recent western Atlantic hurricanes (Idalia and Franklin). All of these factors point toward weakening later this week, but with an expanding wind field.

Lee will likely pass just east of Cape Cod and the coast of Maine, moving into Nova Scotia late this weekend.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Margot is expected to become a hurricane this week in the Central Atlantic, but it will remain far from land.

A new wave in the eastern Atlantic has a 50% chance of development during the next seven days. Most likely it turns north before reaching the U.S. No tropical systems will threaten the Gulf of Mexico for at least the next week or so.

ON THIS DATE IN 1961: Hurricane Carla made landfall on the northeast part of Matagorda Island, Texas, as a strong Category 4 storm. Carla was an extremely large hurricane with devastating effects from the winds and storm surge for the middle and upper Texas coast. Hurricane-force gusts were recorded along the coast from Port Mansfield to Galveston. The highest sustained wind speeds reported were 115 mph at Matagorda, 110 mph at Victoria and 88 mph at Galveston. Extreme peak wind gusts were estimated to be near 170 mph at Port Lavaca as the wind equipment blew away after reading 153 mph.

ON THIS DATE IN 2001: Hurricane Erin was off the coast of New Jersey and New York. Two of four hijacked planes took off from Boston’s Logan Airport, and one each took off from Newark-Liberty and Dulles Airports. It’s safe to assume that a significant number of flights to and from the major Northeast hubs would have been canceled if Hurricane Erin had threatened the East Coast.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.