RADAR CHECK: Scattered showers and storms are slowly increasing across Alabama this afternoon; some of the heaviest rain is falling across parts of Pickens, Tuscaloosa and Bibb counties in west Alabama as I write this. The storms are not severe, but they are producing heavy rain and some lightning. Away from the storms, the sky is partly sunny with temperatures mostly in the 80s. A few scattered showers will remain possible tonight.

REST OF THE WEEK: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible statewide Tuesday and Wednesday. We can’t promise rain for everyone; odds of any one spot seeing rain both days are 30-40%. The highest coverage of rain will likely come Wednesday across the southern counties. We trend drier Thursday, with only a small risk of a shower. Friday looks rain-free with a good supply of sunshine. Highs will hold in the 80s through the week, with lows mostly in the 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK: For now, the weather looks dry over the weekend and through much of next week, with mostly sunny, warm days and fair, pleasant nights. Highs will be in the 80s, lows in the 60s.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Philippe is in the Atlantic far from land with winds of 50 mph. It is about 1,150 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) keeps the system under hurricane strength through the week and shows a gradual gain in latitude.

A good bit of uncertainty remains in the forecast track; the American Global Forecast System model shows a stronger system that turns north, then heads out to sea far from any land. But the European global model shows a weaker system that keeps moving toward the west/northwest. We will keep an eye on it.

Closer to home, a trough of low pressure is producing limited shower activity over portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance is moving westward into unfavorable environmental conditions. The NHC gives it zero chance of development.

A tropical wave several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as the system moves west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. The NHC gives it an 80% chance of development, but it will likely turn north and won’t be a threat to land.

We expect no tropical storms or hurricanes near the Gulf of Mexico for at least the next seven days.

ON THIS DATE IN 1848: The Great Gale of 1848 was the most severe hurricane to affect Tampa Bay, Florida, and is one of two major hurricanes to make landfall in the area. This storm produced the highest storm tide ever experienced in Tampa Bay when the water rose 15 feet in six to eight hours.

ON THIS DATE IN 1998: Four hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.