James Spann: Rain returns to Alabama Wednesday, mainly along and south of I-20

CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT: We have a layer of high, thin clouds over Alabama this afternoon ahead of a warm front and developing surface low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Clouds will thicken tonight; the low will be between 55 and 65 degrees for most communities.
RAIN RETURNS: Rain is likely over much of the state Wednesday; the heaviest rain will be over the southern counties, where some spots could see 2-3 inches. The amount of rain for north Alabama is still debatable; models are not in good agreement. New model guidance suggests the northern extent of the rain will be close to I-59, where light amounts are likely (mostly one-quarter inch or less). Odds of meaningful rain for the Tennessee Valley continue to drop.
For now, Thursday looks dry; the sky becomes partly sunny. Highs will be in the 70s both Wednesday and Thursday. Clouds return late Thursday, and we will mention a chance of showers Thursday night and Friday morning over much of the state with a disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream. Rain amounts will be light.
A cold front will approach the state Friday night, and a few spotty showers are possible, but moisture will be very limited and widespread rain isn’t likely. On Saturday the sky will become mostly sunny by afternoon, and Sunday will be sunny as dry air continues to settle into the state. The high will be in the 70s Saturday, falling into the 60s Sunday with a cool north breeze.
NEXT WEEK: At this point the week looks cool and dry, with highs in the 60s through Wednesday, followed by 70s Thursday and Friday. Lows will be mostly in the 40s.FOOTBALL WEATHER: Jacksonville State will host Liberty tonight (6:30 kickoff). The sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from near 75 at kickoff into the 60s by the second half. There’s no risk of rain.
TROPICS: Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized this afternoon in association with an area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable, and this system has a short window to develop further over the next day or so. By Wednesday morning, the system is forecast to merge with a developing frontal boundary over the western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate the system this afternoon and will provide more information about its structure.
Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast to produce gale-force winds over portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday and potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast by the latter portion of this week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives the system a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm.
A broad area of low pressure several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a bit more concentrated while also showing signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This feature will likely turn north and won’t be a threat to land. The NHC gives it an 80% chance of development.
ON THIS DATE IN 2018: Destructive Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach with winds of 160 mph. It became the first Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the contiguous United States since Andrew in 1992. It was the third-most-intense Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in the contiguous United States in terms of pressure, behind the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Hurricane Camille in 1969. Michael was the first Category 5 hurricane on record to affect the Florida Panhandle, the fourth-strongest landfalling hurricane in the contiguous United States, in terms of wind speed, and the most intense hurricane on record to strike the United States in October.
At least 74 deaths were attributed to the storm, 59 in the United States and 15 in Central America. Michael caused an estimated $25.1 billion in damage. Along the Florida Panhandle, Mexico Beach and Panama City suffered the worst of Michael, incurring catastrophic damage from the extreme winds and storm surge. Numerous homes were flattened and trees felled over a wide swath of the Panhandle. A maximum wind gust of 139 mph was measured at Tyndall Air Force Base before the sensors failed. Peak storm surge inundation was 9-14 feet from Mexico Beach to Indian Pass.
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