James Spann says much-needed rain arrives in Alabama Wednesday from Alabama News Center on Vimeo.

ANOTHER DRY DAY: Birmingham has received only 0.02 inch of rain since mid-September; the last meaningful rain here was on Sept. 16, when just under 1 inch was recorded. Today will be another dry day with ample sunshine and a high in the low 80s. Clouds will increase tonight ahead of a low-pressure center and warm front over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

RAIN RETURNS: Rain is likely over much of the state Wednesday; the heaviest rain will be over the southern counties, where some spots could see 2-3 inches. The amount of rain for north Alabama is still debatable; models are not in good agreement concerning the northern extent of the rain. For now, it looks like places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa and Anniston could see up to one-half inch, with only one-quarter inch for the Tennessee Valley. This could change as we see how the hybrid system develops in the Gulf.

For now, Thursday looks dry; the sky becomes partly sunny. Highs will be in the 70s both Wednesday and Thursday.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A cold front will approach the state Friday night, and a few spotty showers are possible, but moisture will be very limited and widespread rain isn’t likely. On Saturday the sky will become mostly sunny by afternoon, and Sunday will be sunny as dry air continues to settle into the state. The high will be in the 70s Saturday, falling into the 60s Sunday with a cool north breeze.

NEXT WEEK: At this point the week looks cool and dry, with highs in the 60s through Wednesday, followed by 70s Thursday and Friday. Lows will be mostly in the 40s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Jacksonville State will host Liberty tonight (6:30 p.m. kickoff). The sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from near 75 at kickoff into the 60s by the second half. There’s no risk of rain.

TROPICS: A small low-pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce an area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for some additional development while the system moves slowly northward during the next day or so. The low is forecast to merge with a frontal system over the western Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast to produce gale-force winds over portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives the system only a 20% chance of becoming a depression or storm.

A broad area of low pressure several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has changed little in organization since Monday. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This feature will likely turn north and will remain far from land; the NHC gives it an 80% chance of development.

ON THIS DATE IN 2018: Destructive Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach with winds of 160 mph. It became the first Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the contiguous United States since Andrew in 1992. It was the third-most-intense Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in the contiguous United States in terms of pressure, behind the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Hurricane Camille in 1969. Michael was the first Category 5 hurricane on record to affect the Florida Panhandle, the fourth-strongest landfalling hurricane in the contiguous United States, in terms of wind speed, and the most intense hurricane on record to strike the United States in October.

At least 74 deaths were attributed to the storm, 59 in the United States and 15 in Central America. Michael caused an estimated $25.1 billion in damage. Along the Florida Panhandle, Mexico Beach and Panama City suffered the worst of Michael, incurring catastrophic damage from the extreme winds and storm surge. Numerous homes were flattened and trees felled over a wide swath of the Panhandle. A maximum wind gust of 139 mph was measured at Tyndall Air Force Base before the sensors failed. Peak storm surge inundation was 9-14 feet from Mexico Beach to Indian Pass.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.