James Spann forecasts a new surge of dry air for Alabama from Alabama News Center on Vimeo.

RAIN-FREE WEATHER CONTINUES: Alabama needs rain, but it won’t happen this week. Birmingham’s total for October so far is only 0.29 inch. The last time we received more than one-half inch of rain during a 24-hour period was on Sept. 16 (the total that day was 0.86 inch). Drought conditions will continue to intensify with no rain expected through the coming weekend.

The forecast is for mostly sunny, mild days and clear, pleasant nights through Sunday. Daytime temperatures will be above average, with highs between 76 and 83 degrees. Lows will be mostly in the 50s and low 60s. On the positive side, the weather looks great for high school and college football games across the Deep South this weekend.

NEXT WEEK: Models suggest a cold front will bring a chance of showers on Halloween, but it doesn’t look like a big rain event at this point. The coolest air so far this season will roll into the state by Wednesday and Thursday, Nov. 1-2. Some frost seems likely over the latter half of the week.TROPICS: Hurricane Tammy, with winds of 80 mph, is about 230 miles north/northwest of Anguilla early this morning and is moving away from the northern Leeward Islands. The evolution of the upper-air pattern around the system is uncertain this week, and this will bring much uncertainty to the track and intensity forecast. This is best exemplified by the European model ensemble guidance, which shows more than a 1,500-mile southwest-to-northeast spread in the various member solutions in five days.

For now, the National Hurricane Center has the system as a post-tropical cyclone near Bermuda late Friday night, but this could easily change.

Also, showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a low-pressure system over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Nicaragua by early Tuesday. Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next couple of days.

No tropical systems are expected near the Gulf of Mexico this week.

ON THIS DATE IN 1878: One of the most severe hurricanes to affect eastern Virginia in the latter half of the 19th century struck. This storm moved rapidly northward from the Bahamas on Oct. 22 and hit the North Carolina coast late that same day moving at a forward speed of 40 to 50 mph. The storm continued northward, passing through east central Virginia, Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania. The barometric pressure fell to 28.78 inches. The five-minute sustained wind reached 84 mph at Cape Henry. During the heaviest part of the gale, the wind at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, registered 100 mph. The instrument itself finally blew away, and therefore no further record was made.

ON THIS DATE IN 1947: Fish fell from the sky in Marksville, Louisiana. Thousands of fish fell in an area 1,000 feet long by 80 feet wide, possibly due to a waterspout.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.